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In April this year, in releasing a report on the situation of the national economy in the first quarter at a press conference, Qiu Xiaohua, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), devoted much time to answering a question that seemed to be out of the theme: "Whether or not China's statistical figures are true".
The elaborate answer given by Qiu to the question was not as groundless as "wind coming from the hollow cave". In recent years, some people overseas have repeatedly queried the reliability of China's statistics on the grounds that China's energy consumption has declined while its GDP. grown. This had been refuted long ago by Chinese scholars, saying that China's development is, to a great extent, benefited from technological progress and structural adjustment and it is normal for the emergence of the development of energy consumption and GDP in different directions. However, Westerners questioning the figures of China's economic growth has not ended, recently, this has even led to the "theory of China collapse", Western media published articles and held seminars, causing a great fanfare for a while.
Prejudice cannot replace facts, the achievements in China's economic development are evident to all. But we still need to earnestly answer doubts about the truthfulness of China's statistical figures. At a recent news conference, Qiu Xiaohua once again cited figures to prove that it is groundless to adopt a suspicious attitude toward China's statistical data, the base of China's statistical work is reliable. He said like the Chinese economy, China's statistics, compared with those of developed countries, are still not so satisfactory in one place or another, but as long as one objectively looks upon the overall situation about the current operation of China's economy, one will come to the conclusion that "China's current statistical data basically reflect the actual condition".
Qiu cited several groups of figures to give further answer to some Western scholars' question which alleges that "China's statistical data are not coordinate". Compared with 1997, in 2001, China's GDP grew by 33.9 percent, with the average annual growth being 7.6 percent. At the same time, China's fixed asset investment rose by 47.9 percent; total retail volume of consumer goods by 37.7 percent and total import and export volume by 56.8 percent.
First of all, from the perspective of demand, it was coordinate with the rate of economic growth. Then from the perspective of income, the disposable incomes of urban residents increased by 33.5 percent; the per-capita net income of rural residents by 15.2 percent; financial revenue by 89.2 percent; enterprise profits by 3.2-fold and savings deposits of urban and rural residents by 59.4 percent. Except for farmers' income, various indexes were coordinate with economic development. From the perspective of input, during this period, generated electricity grew by 30.2 percent, the rotation volume of passenger by 30.8 percent, that of freight by 24 percent and money supply by 14 percent on an average annual basis. The data in these few aspects were also coordinate with the 33.9 percent growth rate.
Since the initiation of the reform and opening up policy, significant progress has been made in the construction of China's statistical system, compared to the developed countries, the gap is not big in terms of the basic methods, system and technology used for China's statistical work. This point has been fully affirmed by the World Bank, the IMF (the International Monetary Fund) and other international organizations. In their opinion, the quality of China's statistics is generally placed in the front ranks among the developing countries. After conducting a survey on China, personnel sent by the World Bank in 1999 said that China has a relatively perfect statistical system and the qualities of its statisticians are fairly good. At the same time, the World Bank declared that from that year on, no more readjustment would be made to China's official statistical data.
In the construction of legal system, the NBS has, in recent years, intensified the enforcement of the Statistical Law, it has made public the offence-reporting phone, and placed law-breaking acts under the ken of government supervision and control. NBS indicates that people from all walks of life are welcome to exercise supervision over China's statistics. Early this year, China formally joined the IMF-initiated data synergic system, this means that China will ensure fairness, openness and transparency. In addition, the NBS encourages in the statistical industry the professional ethics of seeking truth from facts and puts forward the norm of refraining from giving "false figures". According to Qiu Xiaohua, education in professional ethics conducted over these years is fruitful, the professional ethics and professional competence of the more than 2 million statisticians nationwide are up to the required standard.
Qiu also indicates that statistical correction is normal and conforming to international practices. For example, America's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year has been revised three times, the first one is 5.8 percent, the second one 5.6 percent and the last one 6.1 percent. China's statistics are revised in fewer times, generally three times a year. Appeared in the yearbook of statistics are three figures: the first is an initial estimated figure, then an initial statistical figure and finally a verified figure. If statistical yearbook data are further revised, it is due to the adjustment of statistical method, system and sorting standard.
The report, written by People's Daily correspondent Zhu Jianhong, is published on Page 5 of the newspaper on July 18.
( July 19, 2002)
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