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Scientists are to develop technology within the next three years that will allow the authorities to respond to potential large-scale natural disasters, according to a blueprint recently released by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST).

Earthquakes, floods, landslides, mudslides, rainstorms, tsunamis and other natural disasters have been occurring with increasing frequency because of climate change in recent years. The probability of floods in the southern part of the country and drought in parts of the north is higher this year than at any other time in the last decade, said sources with the Ministry of Water Resources.

Such disasters have been given priority in the research and development of disaster-response technologies, according to the blueprint. Designed to guide the application of science to social progress during the 11th Five-year Plan (2006-10) period, the blueprint was released by the MOST at the end of last month during its national convention on science and social development.

It called for studies of flood forecasting, river monitoring and crisis management. Technologies will be developed to ensure the safety of dams in case of big floods, it noted.

As for earthquakes, research efforts are to center not only on prevention, but also on rescue operations, according to the blueprint. New technologies will give the authorities access to information about earthquakes as soon as possible after they strike.

The causes of disastrous landslides will also be investigated during the 11th Five-year Plan, and the losses caused by such incidents are to be appraised on a more scientific basis, said the blueprint.

The country has a "very serious situation in fighting against floods and droughts this year," E Jingping, vice-minister of water resources, told the press last month.

Heavy rainfall is expected along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and also in North China. Meanwhile, drought could affect northwest China and northeast China's Heilongjiang Province.

The Yangtze and Songhua rivers and Taihu Lake are at risk of major floods, and the Haihe and Yellow rivers, which have seen their water levels decline several times during the last several decades, may also be the source of flooding this year, he said.

There is also a possibility that strong typhoons could hit the coast, he added.

Natural disasters caused direct economic losses of 253 billion yuan (US$32.4 billion) last year, which was 24 percent more than in 2005. There were 14 earthquakes that rated higher than five on the Richter Scale, affecting some 667,000 people, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

(China Daily May 8, 2007)