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Domestic headlines continue to fuel debate on the Chinese Government's tough measures to rein in breakneck growth of the nation's economy.
However, a recent speech by Nobel laureate Robert W. Fogel provided a seemingly farfetched but insightful perspective on the Chinese economy.
Fogel, a renowned US economic historian and winner of the Nobel Prize for economics in 1993, was invited by the China Center for Economic Research of Peking University to lecture on the changing nature of economic growth.
Though many of his conclusions were based on the experience of wealthy nations, the theme on which he elaborated struck a chord for its significance to a transition economy like China's.
Fogel observed a revolutionary change in the structure of consumption and in the division of discretionary time between work and leisure in Western Europe and the United States.
Over the course of the 20th century, annual hours of work fell by nearly half in rich countries. Food, clothing, and shelter, which used to account for three quarters of consumption, today account for just 12 per cent, while leisure has risen from 18 per cent of consumption to 67 per cent.
Another aspect of the changing nature of economic growth, as Fogel singled out, is the impact of high levels of economic attainment on the distribution of the output of the economy and households.
Although there are still glaring inadequacies in the distribution of material commodities that must be addressed, the most lopsided distribution in rich countries is in the realm of spiritual or immaterial assets, which have become critical assets in the struggle for people's self-realization.
The third way in which economic growth is changing is in the rapid and radical shift in the global market for durables and high-tech services.
Fogel threw his weight behind the optimistic forecast that Southeast and East Asian economies will reach a collective gross domestic product (GDP) of about US$60 trillion, or about 15 per cent more than the European and US economies combined, by 2030.
We will surely be excited if that scenario is realized. In fact, many giant multinationals have demonstrated their confidence by risking huge capital investments in China and elsewhere in Southeast Asia despite the many difficulties still facing such investments.
The Nobel laureate's observation is of course crucial to our grasp of the development trend in industrial economies.
However, the most important fact for us is that China remains a developing country. The huge regional development gap across the country means it will take many more years to realize the kind of high living standards people in developed countries enjoy today.
Increase of leisure time is an admirable goal for China too, but it is so far a luxury most Chinese people can not afford as the country's employment pressure keeps building. Painful restructuring of the State sector and the flow of rural laborers into the industrial sector have contributed to the country's unemployment problem.
The fact China still has tens of millions of people to be lifted out of poverty also underlines the country's obligation to provide necessary material aid to those in need.
Given these facts, one can hardly conclude Fogel's study is pertinent to the Chinese conditions.
Yet the apparent irrelevance of his conclusions to the Chinese reality does not undermine the vital implication of his focus on the changing nature of economic growth.
After more than 25 years of reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has been transformed beyond recognition.
The country's long-term growth story inspires us to achieve greater prosperity.
But when problems like under-development of the health sector and environmental deterioration are frequently exposed, Chinese authorities keenly realize the urgency to rethink the strategy to pursue economic growth at any cost.
It is obvious economic growth by itself is not enough to respond to these problems.
Without full development of the country's human resources, economic growth will not take root.
China's policy-makers need to take into account the changing nature of economic growth as the nation strides ahead in building an overall well-off society.
In the coming decades, the importance of developing human capacity will eventually peer with the priority we currently give to increase people's income.
Unfortunately, the country's current debates on macroeconomic control still center on how to maintain economic soundness for the purpose of further economic growth.
Short-term problems can never be tackled effectively if long-term reforms are ignored.
The new phase of China's economic development requires not a growth-oriented but a human-centered development strategy.
An unspoken message we can take from Fogel's speech is that it is time for us to come to grips with the changing nature of economic growth.
(Xinhua News Agency June 30, 2004)
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