--- SEARCH ---
WEATHER
CHINA
INTERNATIONAL
BUSINESS
CULTURE
GOVERNMENT
SCI-TECH
ENVIRONMENT
LIFE
PEOPLE
TRAVEL
WEEKLY REVIEW
Learning Chinese
Learn to Cook Chinese Dishes
Exchange Rates
Hotel Service
China Calendar


Hot Links
China Development Gateway
Chinese Embassies

Experts Hold Mixed Views over Interest Rate Hike

Debate over whether China should raise its interest rate or not is continuing, as the central government persists with its wait-and-see stance.

Some experts say China needs to and has the opportunity to raise the renminbi interest rate while others say the time is not right.

Wang Zhao, a researcher with the State Council's Development Research Center, said it was necessary for the government to increase the rate marginally, due to further consumer price rises in May.

The consumer price index (CPI), policy-makers' key inflation gauge, rose a year-on-year 4.4 percent in May, up from a 3.8 percent rise in April and a 3 percent hike in March, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.

An increase in the interest rate will send a signal to the public that the government is willing to use more market measures to keep economic development on track, he said.

"Market measures are beneficial for fostering competition," Wang said. "The government should avoid an overuse of administrative means."

He said the present over-investment is mainly due to the low cost of bank loans.

The government should raise the interest rate to curb investment.

"The time is right to raise the interest rate," Wang said.

Yuan Gangming, a senior economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the government needed to act with urgency.

"Chinese residents have been suffering under a negative interest rate for months," he said.

The benchmark one-year bank deposit rate is 1.98 percent.

The negative interest rate lead to a decline in residents' bank deposits, Yuan said.

"This pushes down their purchasing power," he said. "The negative interest rate also results in people's lower expectations for the future."

The government should pay more attention to the interests of ordinary people, which were above State-owned companies and banks.

Yuan said a lower interest rate could help reduce the reform costs for State-owned companies and banks.

In a recent survey by the central People's Bank of China, about 25 percent of urban depositors - which is 10.8 percentage points higher than a year ago - said they cannot bear the present high consumer prices.

About 40 percent of the depositors believe that consumer prices will rise further in the third quarter.

Some 73 percent of the urban depositors, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from a year earlier, said that the interest rate was too low.

Less urbanites like saving their money in banks.

According to the survey, 15 percent of the residents, an increase of 3 percentage points from a year ago, plan to withdraw their savings deposits to buy treasury bonds, and 10.6 percent want to buy stocks or funds with their deposits.

People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said last week that the central bank would closely monitor the economic and financial operations of the country.

It will try to bring into full play the role of monetary and credit policies in promoting economic restructuring and change the mode of economic growth, he said.

In April, Vice-Governor Wu Xiaoling said if the inflation rate keeps rising, leading to a negative lending rate, the central bank "would not sit idle."

A negative lending rate would enable corporations to store raw materials, driving the inflation rate up even further, she said.

Mu Huaipeng, director of the central bank's research bureau, says the government needs to observe the June, July and August price changes before making a decision.

"It is difficult to say whether consumer prices will continue to rise in the coming months," Mu said.

Zhang Xueying, a senior economist at the State Information Centre, said the central bank was unlikely to raise the rate in July or August.

"Major economic figures suggest the country's macro-control measures have taken effects," he said.

Fixed asset investment rose a year-on-year 18.3 percent in May. The growth rate was 16.4 percentage points lower than that in April.

The CPI, although it rose 4.4 percent in May compared with a year ago, dropped 0.1 percent compared with April.

"The central bank will not merely look at the CPI figures on a year-on-year basis, it will also look at the figures on a monthly basis," Zhang said.

If the central bank raises the interest rate, investment growth will slow further, he said.

Meanwhile, the grain price - a major reason for the CPI rise - will stabilize due to a good summer harvest, increased exports and expanded plantation areas of autumn grain.

"The CPI will turn," Zhang said.

Qi Jingmei, another economist at the State Information Centre, said there was no real significance in raising the renminbi interest rate.

"The increased macro-control measures will cool the economy," she said.

The government is also unwilling to raise the interest rate, because it fears a higher rate would attract more foreign capital, increasing the pressure for the renminbi's appreciation, she said.

Bank of China's spokesman Zhu Min said he did not believe that China would raise its interest rate earlier than the possible rate rise in the United States.

"Exchange-rate pressure is more important than interest rates," he said.

Li Yang, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said the government should postpone an interest rate decision because consumer prices may start to fall soon.

A rate increase could contribute to a resurgence of inflation by attracting further speculative capital inflows, which would push up the money supply.

The central bank bought US$36 billion of foreign currency in the first quarter even though the nation recorded a trade deficit, a sure sign that speculation is huge, Li said.

The government should fine-tune a certain type of rate, rather than raising overall rates, should it decide on an increase, Li said.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the government is capable of avoiding severe economic inflation.

The present higher prices are partly due to supply bottlenecks in some sectors.

The fast fixed asset investment growth since the second half of last year has resulted in price rises for products such as steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, electricity and oil.

A fall in grain production, down 5.8 percent last year, has resulted in a rapid price rise since October. The grain price rose by 25.6 percent year-on-year during the first five months, the bureau said.

The bird flu outbreak in the first quarter also led to price rises for meat, chicken and eggs.

Food price rises alone contributed 2.88 percentage points to the CPI, the bureau said.

However, preventing market price hikes remains a priority task for China, the bureau said.

(China Daily June 21, 2004)

China Has No Plans for Interest Rate Hike
Governor: Bank Rates Should Keep Pace with Price
Pressure on for Interest Rate Adjustment
Renminbi Interest Rate to Remain Unchanged
Print This Page
|
Email This Page
About Us SiteMap Feedback
Copyright © China Internet Information Center. All Rights Reserved
E-mail: webmaster@china.org.cn Tel: 86-10-68326688
主站蜘蛛池模板: 69av在线视频| 久久久亚洲欧洲日产国码二区| 福利一区二区三区视频午夜观看| 国产免费久久久久久无码| 亚洲av无码成人网站在线观看 | 菠萝视频在线完整版| 国产男女猛视频在线观看| 中国特级黄一级**毛片| 日本高清二三四本2021| 亚洲AV无码久久| 粉嫩大学生无套内射无码卡视频| 国产乡下三级全黄三级bd| 黑巨人与欧美精品一区| 天天综合亚洲色在线精品| 久久精品影院永久网址| 波多野结衣搜查官| 国产乱码精品一区二区三| 91丨九色丨首页| 天天做天天爱夜夜爽| 一区二区三区视频在线观看| 日韩高清伦理片中字在线观看| 亚洲成a人不卡在线观看| 烈血黄昏中视频| 免费精品国产自产拍观看| 黄页网站在线观看视频| 国产私人尤物无码不卡| 18成禁人视频免费网站| 国产精品视频二区不卡| 99久久99久久久精品久久| 手机在线中文字幕| 久久99精品九九九久久婷婷| 日本高清成本人视频一区| 久久精品无码专区免费| 最近中文字幕高清2019中文字幕| 亚洲国产婷婷综合在线精品| 欧美无遮挡国产欧美另类| 免费看AV毛片一区二区三区| 精品国偷自产在线| 午夜私人影院免费体验区| 香蕉97超级碰碰碰碰碰久| 国产成人亚洲综合在线|