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China is on track to double its aluminium exports this year, but the frenzy has cooled in recent months, partly because the tightened domestic supply has lured traders to sell the metal back home.
In the first eight months of this year, China's aluminium exports surged by 100.7 percent to 381,300 tons. Swelling exports are mainly driven by rapid output expansion in the domestic market, forcing traders to sell products abroad for a better price, analysts said.
But the export pace seems to be slackening, as the domestic price inches up. In August, China exported 47,000 tons of aluminium, down 35 percent from 72,825 tons in July.
On the import front, the nation has continued to buy back its exported aluminium on the international market since July, seeking a better time either to re-export it or sell it back home. In August, China bought back 11,062 tons of aluminium, accounting for 58 percent of the total aluminium imported during the month.
"Previous exports had tightened the domestic supply, leading the domestic price to pick up. Traders began to pare down their exports and to buy back to take advantage of the price spike," said Wang Feihong, an analyst with the Antike Information Development Company, the leading research institution in the industry.
"Also, a weak price on the international market discouraged traders from selling abroad," Wang added.
The domestic price has been rising against a dipping London Metal Exchange aluminium price, which fell 3.5 percent during the third quarter from the second quarter. Selling aluminium at home fetches roughly 200 yuan (US$24.20) more per ton than selling it abroad for the time being.
Still, exports may hit 600,000 tons by the end of the year, as compared with last year's 294,900 tons, Wang said.
"China's aluminium production capacity has been expanded too rapidly. Export is the only choice to absorb the over-supply at home," Wang said.
Despite its high energy prices and restrictions on the import of alumina, the raw material for aluminium, domestic plants have been scrambling to expand their production capacity over the past two years, hoping to catch up with brisk growth in demand.
Annual production capacity is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 5.3 million tons by year's end, versus 2.8 million tons in 2000, Wang said.
The expansion, however, has outpaced demand growth, forcing producers to seek overseas markets for surplus output. China is likely to produce 4.2 million tons of primary aluminium this year, up 23.5 percent from 3.4 million tons in 2001. The full-year domestic demand however, is estimated at only 3.9 million tons.
Even the lacklustre price has not persuaded Chinese aluminium producers to lessen output. They seem to be hoping that strong demand in neighbouring Japan and South Korea can eat up the surplus. Analysts said Chinese smelter output is expected to grow by some 15-23 per cent annually until 2006.
In the January-August period of this year, China produced 2.77 million tons of aluminium, a hike of 26.9 per cent year-on-year.
China, a net importer of aluminium for most of the last decade, became a net exporter in 2000.
(China Daily October 14, 2002)
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