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Shanghai equities may fluctuate with the key benchmark index moving around the 1,800-point level before the Friday trading debut of ICBC, which could push domestic stocks to multiyear highs.

 

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares and hard-currency B shares, closed last week up 0.32 percent at 1,790.36. It has climbed 54.2 percent this year.

 

"A spate of blue chips, including banking and automobile counters, have returned to reasonable levels after recent rallies," said analysts at Beijing Shoufang Investment Consultant Co.

 

"We expect the market to remain stable before trading of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and then hit highs with the bank's estimated strong debut."

 

ICBC, China's biggest bank by assets, raised a combined US$19.1 billion last week in a dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Nearly a third of the issue was placed with domestic investors.

 

The Beijing-based lender sold 48.39 billion shares for 3.07 HK dollars (39 US cents) and the equivalent in yuan, collecting the maximum sought as investors ordered more than US$500 billion of stock.

 

"The bank may have nearly a 10 percent gain on its first trading day as its valuation is below the market average," said Liu Yu, an Orient Securities Co trader. "That can bolster across-the-board sentiment, help other blue-chip firms rise and drive the index past 1,800."

 

But analysts noted investors should be cautious against chips that have charted hefty gains without any fundamentals to support such rises. Those firms, propped up by a general buying spree, will likely be spurned when the market hits a short-term correction. Listed banks may also lose some ground due to ICBC's trading, which may take capital from other shares.

 

Beijing Shoufang expects the index to move in a range between 1,765 and 1,860 this week. It predicted strength in the energy sector as power companies often derive more than 30 percent of revenue in the last quarter.

 

(Shanghai Daily October 23, 2006)