Despite the central government's measures to cool down the overheated real estate sector, mainland property developers listed in Hong Kong are set to post strong earnings for the first half of the year.

Eight Hong Kong-based analysts surveyed by China Daily said Guangzhou R&F Properties was likely to come out on top with a 65 percent jump in net profits to 1.067 billion yuan (US$133 million).

Others gainers are likely to include China Overseas Land and Investment, with an expected jump in earnings of 30 percent to HK$749 million (US$93.6 million), and Shanghai Forte, whose earnings are set to rise 33 percent to 447 million yuan (US$55.9 million).

Some also expect Shimao Property, Hopson Development, China Resources Land, Beijing Capital Land and Agile Property to do well, expecting them to register double-digit growth.

Lai Wai-shing, head of the research department at Hantec Investment, explained the best performers are generally expected to be "developers with large land reserves," as they are strong enough to withstand to the slew of cool-down measures introduced since May by the central government.

The "bulk of their sales" were booked before the tightening policies were issued, which would not affect their balance sheets for the first half of the year, said Stone Shi, an analyst from Sun Hung Kai Financial Group.

R&F Properties, for example, had land reserves totalling 4.26 million square meters in Guangzhou, Beijing and Tianjin by the end of March.

With more projects completed in recent months, R&F Properties sales in the first half of the year are expected to be outstanding, said Patrick Chow, an analyst from Taifook Securities.

The developer, which began to trade its shares in Hong Kong last July, received orders worth 8.4 billion yuan (US$1.05 billion) in 2005, 40 percent of which are due to be realized this year.

Shi predicted R&F Properties would sell 2 million square meters of apartments in 2006, up from last year's 860,000 square meters.

Other developers would win out with their different competitive edges, analysts said.

China Overseas Land is a national player, Shimao owns many high-end projects in prime areas, and Beijing Capital Land has been spearheading the drive into smaller cities where competition and the influence of the cool-down measures are slight.

Some analysts expect the cool-down measures to make their presence felt in the second half of the year, having an impact on these developers.

"Many potential house purchasers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude since tightening policies were issued, while property price rises in big cities have also tended to slow down," said Chow.

Therefore, analysts expect developers with a large presence in smaller cities to get the upper hand in the second half of the year.

Most of them gave high ratings to Beijing Capital Land, citing its large land reserves in cities such as Tianjin.

"Its earnings growth is set to accelerate in the second half and next year," said Chow, who estimated the developer would notch up a 40 percent growth in its net profit for the entire year.

(China Daily August 2, 2006)