China Mobile Communications Corp's much-expected acquisition of Luxembourg-based Millicom International Cellular SA seems to have been aborted.

But analysts said the move would help China Mobile the world's largest mobile operator in terms of the number of subscribers avoid a big mistake overseas.

In a statement, Millicom said it had "decided to terminate all discussions concerning a potential sale of the entire share capital of the company."

Neither Millicom nor China Mobile Communications Corp, the parent of Hong Kong-listed China Mobile Ltd, have confirmed they were in talks.

But media reports identified China Mobile as the potential buyer of Millicom, which had 9.9 million subscribers in 16 countries at the end of March.

China Mobile had been reportedly ready to pay US$5.3 billion to acquire Millicom, expected to be the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese company.

Since May 2006, Millicom "has been in prolonged discussions and due diligence with one potential purchaser," the firm said.

But it concluded "that this purchase will not be in a position within an acceptable timeframe to make a binding offer that is suitably attractive, given the current strong performance of the business, or sufficiently certain of closing."

A spokesman with the China Mobile Communications Corp declined to comment.

Analysts speculate that China Mobile might have been the one backing off.

Li Jing, an investment analyst with Beijing-based research house Analysys International, has estimated US$3.75 billion would be a fair price.

"The US$5.3 billion offer is apparently too high," said Wang Guoping, an analyst with China Galaxy Securities.

China Mobile's attempt to acquire Millicom has been billed as a big step for the Chinese operator, to leverage its brand image overseas.

But running an overseas business in 16 countries could be a tough job for China Mobile, which has less experience in markets away from its home turf, analysts said.

"I doubt whether China Mobile will be capable of running sprawling networks across the globe even if the acquisition is successful," said Wang.

Hong Kong-based technology analyst Robert Clark said the acquisition of Millicom "will be a huge management challenge to date."

"Incumbent telecom companies have a poor record abroad, especially in their early forays," he said.

"I doubt China Mobile will be any different."

Several global operators including Vodafone have been suffering from major setbacks in their overseas expansion in recent years.

China Mobile's "home-grown management team doesn't have the breadth to deal with business cultures and business issues in a dozen different countries," said Clark.

"It will doubtless push for Millicom's senior team to play a role, which limits the synergies and benefits for the new owners."

However, despite the abortion of the acquisition of Millicom, China Mobile is expected to look for new acquisition targets, especially targeting developing markets, analysts said.

Thanks to a well-established monopoly, China Mobile has for a long time focused on the home market.

But in recent months, the firm has been increasing its involvement in global activities by forging ties with leading global operators or joining international organizations.

By the end of May, China Mobile Ltd had 269 million subscribers while its rival China Unicom Ltd had 134 million cellular subscribers.

(China Daily July 5, 2006)