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Net exports this year will contribute over 35 percent of China's economic growth, much higher than previous years, the State Information Center (SIC) said in its latest report.
In the first three quarters, China's export jumped 31.3 percent to US$546.4 billion, while import rose 16 percent to US$478.1 billion. The trade surplus hit US$68.3 billion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Both normal and abnormal factors contributed to the record-high trade surplus in the first three quarters, which exceeds the trade surplus for the whole 2004, said Director Fan Jianping of the economic prediction department of the SIC.
In recent years, China's processing and manufacturing capacity has been greatly enhanced due to rocketing foreign direct investment, while domestic demand for overseas materials and products grew slowly due to macro-control policies and a shrinking range of tariff reduction this year, said Fan, listing them as normal factors.
China's exports in processing account for over 50 percent of the total, and the trade surplus in process trade accounts for 62.1 percent of China's total trade surplus. With the interim period after China's accession to the World Trade Organization coming to an end, China is slowing down its pace in cutting import tariffs.
Many domestic enterprises expected the Renminbi to appreciate and trade barriers against Chinese products this year, so they increased exports at an early stage, said Fan, citing that as an abnormal factor.
The excessive dependence of Chinese economic growth upon overseas demand is risky, the SIC warned in its report. The huge sum of trade surplus will lead to the abnormal increase of China's forex reserve, pressuring the RMB to further appreciate and triggering an international trade dispute, it said.
(Xinhua News Agency November 1, 2005)
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