China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), in a long-term point of view, means an increase of 2 - 3 million job opportunities every year. However, the recent estimation is to see an additional unemployment of 3-4 million, making the unemployment rate to rise two percentage points.
The above judgment was made in the "Report on China's Population & Job Opportunity" which was recently published by Chinese Publishing House for Social Sciences and Documents when dealing with China's entry into the WTO and its influence on the employment situation in China.
As pointed out in the report which is regarded as a "Green Paper on Population and Job Opportunity", the greatest opportunity China's entry into the WTO brought to the Chinese people is to push forward the integration of Chinese economy with the globalization of economy, to bring the Chinese economy onto a long and stable development and so to create conditions for a stable increase of job opportunities.
Furthermore it is to push ahead the establishment of a market mechanism for employment by stepping up the urbanization process. And the greatest risk is the additional variety of influence brought about by the international market, which has shattered to pieces the original pattern of employment in the former industries and trades, thereby bringing about more risks of unemployment.
This is especially so at the very beginning of the entry into the WTO. The unemployed caused by industry restructure mixed up with the surplus laborers cut down from State-owned enterprises will come to exert a great pressure on employment.
The green paper holds that any analysis on the question must be made from both the long-term (around ten years) and short-term (three to four years) points of view.
If judging the problem from a long-term point of view, the entry of the WTO will exert a positive influence on the increase of job opportunities due to the growth of trade and the adjustment and update of industry structure.
The labor-intensive, tertiary industries and small enterprises will get further developed, thereby increasing elasticity for employment.
While looking at it from a short-term point of view, the entry into the WTO will exert an impact on the traditional trades in China by breaking up the original employment pattern.
Therefore, it will not be able to increase any job opportunity but to decrease it, leading to the sharpening of contradictions for employment.
According to the analysis of different trades, Chinese agriculture is to receive the heaviest pressure as dealt with in the green paper with the employment opportunity to decrease by 10 million.
Of course, this doesn't mean a dominant unemployment but an increase of surplus workforce in the countryside.
There will be a big alteration of employment in the secondary industry with job opportunity to increase on the whole and moreover, the service trade will come up with a fine opportunity for development, witnessing a big increase in job opportunities.
( May 27, 2002)
