Monday's Beijing Daily reported on a survey of economists conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics' China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center that found their confidence over the past three quarters "satisfactory" and that they believed deflation would be unlikely next year.
80 economists participated in the survey, which the paper described as "recent" and that used a confidence index that ranged from 1 to 9, with 9 being the most confident. The overall index amongst respondents was found to be 5.11.
The confidence index was calculated by averaging the sum of the current and expected economic prosperity indexes. An index above 5 was interpreted as meaning their evaluation of economic trends was positive and optimistic.
The survey found that the majority of economists thought current economic development was in a "not cold and not hot" normal condition, and most were satisfied by it.
As to expected trends over the next six months, 72 percent thought conditions would remain unchanged, 19 percent that they would deteriorate and 9 percent that they would "take a favorable turn."
68 percent thought the increase in consumption would remain unchanged, 22 percent that it would speed up and 10 percent that it would slow down.
The survey also found that most thought the consumer price index would be stable, with a possible increase of around 1 to 2 percent. 68 percent thought deflation unlikely, 25 percent "very possible" and 7 percent impossible.
85 percent thought that, although economic growth this year has been slower than 2004, it would remain at 9 percent. 70 percent thought it would be between 9 and 9.2 percent.
In consideration of an unlikely increase in exports and investment, they predicted that next year's increase in GDP would fall. 85 percent thought the increase would be 8 to 9 percent, 63 percent that it would be over 8.5 percent and 7 percent that it would be over 9 percent.
More economists tended to support a more relaxed currency policy, the same proportion as those who wanted to maintain a stable interest rate.
(China.org.cn by Wang Qian November 24, 2005)
