Regulators have been playing down the amount and impact of speculative foreign investment over the past year, but the director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said there could be "no end of trouble in future" if local governments aren't made more aware of its risks.
Guo Shuqing was speaking today to Xinhua on the sidelines of the annual session of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the country's top advisory body.
"Foreign exchange administration departments and other macroeconomic units are investigating the issue and will severely punish illegal activities."
Foreign exchange reserves added as much as US$206.7 billion last year alone. Guo said the overall inflow of capital was "normal and legal" and reflects the "market scenario," but that there are some "worrisome" problems.
'Fake foreign investment' was used to speculatively purchase renminbi-denominated assets and commercial housing, he noted. These kinds of funds are called reqian, literally 'hot money,' in Chinese.
The foreign exchange administration found that people from overseas had bought dozens of apartments in coastal cities, some even more than 100, and that this was "obviously not for their own use," he said.
This kind of 'hot money' pushes housing prices to a very high level, making cities look prosperous, but does no good to the investment climate as it leads to higher living and business costs.
Typically, this means greater risks for local financial institutions, enterprises and even individuals. When the real estate bubble bursts, they will suffer huge losses, Guo explained.
Speculative investment also sneaked into China in capital accounts or based on no real trade, Guo pointed out.
He emphasized that every locality or foreign-funded enterprise in the country is obliged to abide by foreign exchange administration rules.
"Capital inflow is an important part of China's overseas economy. We hope all sides join hands with us to restrain speculative capital."
Outstanding foreign debts surged 18 percent year-on-year to US$228.6 billion by the end of 2004. Typically, the ratio of short-term debts -- which should be serviced within one year -- to the total reached 45.6 percent, beyond the internationally accepted safety threshold of 40 percent.
Guo said the foreign exchange reserve -- hitting US$609.9 billion at the end of last year, second only to Japan -- is quite enough to pay the debts. But for a single firm, its debts in foreign currency may snowball to an amount that engenders "systematic risks."
He revealed that new foreign exchange reserves last year included US$60.6 billion in foreign direct investment, US$32 billion in trade surplus as calculated by customs, US$30 billion from foreign exchange clearing under the account of imports and exports by enterprises, US$35 billion in foreign debts, over US$10 billion in service trade surplus, US$30 billion in individual asset transfer and earnings and over US$10 billion in securities investment.
Excessive foreign exchange reserves have long been an excuse used by some countries, especially the US, to demand appreciation of the yuan, which now floats within a narrow band against the US dollar.
Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated in his government work report on Saturday that the yuan will be kept "basically stable" at a rational equilibrium, while vowing to improve the exchange rate mechanism.
Also today, the director of the Gansu provincial branch of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said that special anti-money laundering regulations were urgently needed to fill in current loopholes.
Zhao Peng, also a deputy to the National People's Congress, said a supervision system that covers banking, securities and insurance is necessary.
People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Li Ruogu said earlier that China would become a full member of the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering in the middle of this year if everything goes smoothly, an effort to enhance global cooperation in this regard.
(Xinhua News Agency March 11, 2005)
