The abuse of Iraqi prisoners by American and British soldiers has shocked the world, and with each passing day more photos or reports come to light. How will the affair affect the situation in Iraq and how will US President George W. Bush deal with the problem? Zhao Weiming, deputy head of the Middle East Study Institute of Shanghai International Studies University and a noted expert on Middle Eastern affairs, spoke with the Shanghai Morning Post about these issues. 

Shanghai Morning Post: Will the disclosure of prisoner abuse photos lead to more attacks on American and British soldiers or escalate the conflict?

Zhao Weiming: The maltreatment of Iraqi prisoners has cost America its grounds of morality and justice in Iraq and aroused global fury. A year later, America has not been able to back up its justifications for starting the war. That means it is unjust. The abuse scandal badly damages America’s already-weak image and with the increase of anger, all Iraqi people may fight against the American invasion.

SMP: Bush and Blair apologized some time after the disclosure of the affair. Can their apologies assuage people’s resentment?

ZW: Bush and Blair apologized after the affair was disclosed, but their apologies were reluctant, untimely and forced. Their apologies are not sincere and only aim to appease domestic indignation and anti-American sentiment in Iraq. There are more than 1,000 of these photos. America will try the people involved and the victims will receive material and mental compensation, but the effects of the affair will continue.

SMP: The scandal has reduced support for Bush to the lowest level this year. Will it result in his defeat in the election?

ZW: The prisoner maltreatment reflects American unilateralism. America attacked the sovereign country of Iraq without the permission of the United Nations, and now it is even showing its contempt for the Geneva Convention. Without question, America’s image is damaged. With the disclosure of more maltreatment photos, Bush’s support will continue to drop.

SMP: US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld or other senior military officials are likely to become scapegoats in the affair. Bush is supporting Rumsfeld. What is his aim? If he does not abandon Rumsfeld, how will Bush protect himself?

ZW: So far, Bush has supported Rumsfeld because the defense secretary is an important policy maker and performer on his team. As Bush now is facing Iraqi power transfer, antiterrorism efforts and the elections, by supporting Rumsfeld he is protecting himself. As the affair develops, Bush may sacrifice Rumsfeld to protect himself.

SMP: How will America and the UK end the scandal? Although Bush has consistently stated that he will not withdraw from Iraq, if the affair does not cool down within a short time will he change his mind?

ZW: Bush has consistently stated that he will not retreat from Iraq, but the maltreatment scandal will further aggravate the situation there. If American casualties go beyond what the American people can bear and they lose confidence in the Iraq situation, the government will come under immense pressure and will retreat from Iraq. America had a military victory, but it lost the war in terms of politics, morality and justice. 

(China.org.cn translated by Feng Yikun, May 18, 2004)