At the fifth China Economist Forum held in Beijing December 8, 2003, sociologist Dr. Li Peilin, deputy director of the Institute of Sociology under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), said that China's economy is hopefully to benefit from a new round of fast development in 2004. He also foresees 10 characteristics of the country's social and economic development, which will possibly show in the coming 2004.
First, the new strategy for systematic and collaborative development will enter a stage of practical implementation. Hence it will have a nationwide influence on the nation's economy, politics and the distribution of social resources. Nevertheless, China's economic development will already be on a self-adaptive track powered by market leverage.
Second, economic growth will enter another booming period. The GDP growth rate may even surpass the average 7-8 percent that has been kept in recent years. The consumption market will begin to show signs of stepping out of stagnancy and inflation. Some segments, however, will pick up steams and may even become over-heated. As a result, raw materials, energy supply and capital for these segments may become short in supply. The government will adopt some measures to ward off over-heated economic development and overproduction.
Third, more investment will flow to the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. In addition to the widening development gap between the Eastern and Western China, the gap between the southern and northern China is also bound to expand.
Fourth, the imbalance between economic growth and social development will deteriorate in the new round of development. The disconnection or even betrayal of economic development to other issues such as the stock market, employment and income growth of low-income families, will become even worse and become the most challenging issue in terms of letting the general public share the fruits of reform. But the years-long stagnancy of the consumption market is likely to show improvement.
Fifth, the strategy of rejuvenating northeastern China's rusty industrial bases will become the new limelight. It will stand as one of the three major development strategies along with that for accelerating the development in southeastern China and that of the Western China's development.
Sixth, the labor market for college-graduates will be even tougher, and the starting-salaries for those new employees will be further lowered on the basis of the 2003 figures. This situation will drive colleges and universities to reform their curriculum setting.
Seventh, the fast industrialization and urbanization and the hiking of land price may trigger a new round of competition for land use and bring forward more land-related disputes.
Eighth, water shortage in urban areas will become even more serious. The overall water-supply insufficiency will become an important factor restricting the country's urban development. Meanwhile, the spread of some epidemic disease and the pollution of drinking water in rural areas will pose a threat to the public health and safety.
Ninth, as China further opens to the outside world in its modernization drive, the establishment of a human resources bank becomes increasingly important. To pool human resources and rebuild people's capabilities will become a vital project.
Tenth, though the recent price rise of agricultural products arouses wide concern from the public, food security is not likely to become an important issue to confine the nation's overall development.
(China.org.cn by Alex Xu, December 22, 2003)
