As more and more families take delivery of new automobiles, China?s city dwellers are becoming increasingly worried about restrictions on private cars. For example during the first half of this year, Beijing streets saw some 20,000 new vehicles every month bringing the total in the city to over 1.8 million. The rate at which these numbers are increasing in the capital is up 50 percent on last year. The roads are finding it difficult to cope with the influx. Recent major roadworks led to acute traffic jams in the city proper. Attention is focussing once again on the debate as to whether or not to impose restrictions on private cars.
The Restrictions Dilemma
The issue of restriction has been a long running question for traffic authorities. An expert said, ?Frankly the Shanghai policy of auctioning off licenses for private cars is the envy of many other big cities. After all the simplest way of resolving the conflict between vehicles and roads is just to limit the total number of vehicles. A system based on rationing can appear effective when compared with more complicated options for regulation based on such requirements as possession of a garage space or condition of the vehicle etc. Take Singapore for example, there the number of cars is held below 3 percent by a system of rationing, which operates through a mechanism of high taxation. In Shanghai the increase in the number of private cars has been effectively controlled ever since licenses became subject to auction.?
Car ownership has long been the dream of many people. China is still in the early stages of becoming a car-dependent society and restrictions imposed by auctioning licenses would hold back access to the family car by significantly increasing the cost of car purchase. The authorities in Shanghai issued a record 3,000 licenses at auction in July. The average bid was up 726 yuan (US$88) on the month before and the 20,000 yuan (US$2,415) barrier was broken for the first time. Some of those who were disappointed in the bidding went to Hangzhou to get licenses while others will hold back meantime.
The auto industry both domestic and foreign has a major impact on employment and on the economy. It is now reaping the benefits of a growing strength arising from increasing competition. As market demand grows and consumption increases, the motor car finds itself at the center of a hot spot of economic growth. In the first half of this year, there has been rapid growth, put at some 30 percent, in demand for automobiles in China. This has created ideal conditions for growth in the window of opportunity represented by the limited period of continuing protectionism, which follows WTO (World Trade Organization) entry.
The restrictions on private cars in the big cities will lead in turn to similar restrictions in other cities and these will have a major impact on the growing auto industry.
In the medium to long-term, fundamental solutions will be needed to address such problems as urban traffic congestion, impact on residential neighborhoods and of course pollution. The answers will be found in road improvements, planning for multiple centers rather than a single city center and in the growth of attractive satellite towns. In the short-term, restrictions on the introduction of more and more automobiles can hold back the tide.
At present the Beijing Development and Research Center is working on strategic plans to provide a blueprint for traffic developments over the next ten years or so. The director of the center, Quan Yongshen holds that the automobile brings benefits to major cities in the form of economic development, expansion of the city and the advancement of society. However when the actual road conditions are taken into account, it is clear that some limited measures to restrict private car numbers could help avoid deterioration in traffic conditions and over-dependence on the automobile.
It has been predicted that if current levels are maintained Beijing will have 3 million motor cars by the time of the Olympic year of 2008. This could be considered acceptable when projected road improvements are taken into account and a comparison is made with the 4 to 5 million in cities like Tokyo and New York. Therefore there is no sign of an early change in the current policy of ?restricting use rather than possession? for regulating the automobile in Beijing.
Tackling the Traffic Jams
Could traffic jams be prevented without any restrictions on private cars? Some specialists are of the opinion that city transport has to be viewed as an integrated system. For a lasting solution it is necessary to take a systems approach and a raft of different measures must be brought on stream. These would include improvements in road layouts, increasing the area given over for road use, better public transport, traffic management schemes and other measures to improve traffic flows.
Road systems in China?s big cities are being developed from a low base. While roads occupy some 35 to 40 percent of the area of cities in the US and Australia, the figure for Beijing is currently only about 20 percent. Here the pace of road construction must be quickened if traffic congestion is to be alleviated. Beijing is to invest 50 billion yuan (US$6.04 billion) in road construction by 2010. This includes provision for 600 kilometers of new urban highway to be opened by 2005.
However there is a danger that new roads will just lead to more automobiles and a never-ending cycle of congestion leading to new roads, then more cars and new congestion.
Striving to further develop public transport is the only way to really get at the root of the problem. A strategy of giving precedence to public transport is recognized around the world as the best way to achieve efficient movement of people in cities and make best use of the available roads.
Tokyo and New York average some 1.5 to 1.8 private cars per family, ten times the level in Beijing. But in these cities public transport still accounts for about 75 percent of journeys. In 1997 Beijing implemented a strategy of giving precedence to public transport. By 2008 everywhere in downtown Beijing will be within 500 meters of a subway station.
Traffic management schemes have an important role to play in raising efficiency. The Beijing Traffic Administration Bureau has now completed work aimed at optimizing traffic movements across more than a hundred crossings and inter-sections. The bureau has also overseen the placing of over 2,700 traffic signs, 11,000 meters of railings and 600 kilometers of road markings. An intelligent traffic management project is currently undergoing trials.
By 2004 Beijing will have an integrated traffic management system, an intelligent traffic signal management system and advanced measures to control bus transport together with the real-time data collection and processing capabilities necessary to support these systems. By 2010 the capital will have in place advanced transportation information systems, which will be up to full international standard.
In addition to the issue of restrictions on the possession of automobiles, it is also necessary to consider regulations applying to their use. If traffic jams are to be avoided, attention must be given to policy-making and traffic management. Increases in the demands made on traffic systems must be rationally controlled with attention given to the types of vehicle involved, the times they transit the city and the space they require. The measures available to address the problems include one-way systems and pedestrian zones. In addition private vehicles can be charged for entering the city center in the ?rush hour? and parking can be charged at higher rates where congestion is most severe.
(china.org.cn by Li Xiao, September 24, 2002)
