The most significant change in the international community since Sept.11, 2001 can be attributed to a shift in major power relations, which is now seeing long brewing tensions coming to the fore. It is especially worth noting the developments that have taken place in bilateral relations between both China and the US, and Russia and the US. In stark contrast to these, relations between the EU and the US are becoming increasingly strained. This state of affairs can be seen as the most conspicuous feature in contemporary power relations.
An improvement in Russian-US relations has been one of the most encouraging outcomes since the Sept. 11 catastrophe, a key progress made in the international community. Treaties such as The Treaty Between US and Russia on Strategic Offensive Reductions, and The Joint Declaration on the New Strategic Relationship Between US and Russia, together with the Russian-NATO Council?s focus on improving cooperation between twenty countries, constitute a landmark phase in US-Russian relations. These developments denote an historical end to 13 years of cold war. Although there are many issues still waiting to be resolved, in areas of politics, economics, and security, a huge shift has seen increasing nuclear disarmament and an improvement in Russian-NATO relations, making room further for developments in bilateral relations.
While US-Russian relations have improved a great deal, Sino-Russian relations have also shown signs of progress. Immediately after a Russian-US summit, Russian and Chinese leaders, along with those of four central Asian countries, signed the Shanghai Cooperation Charter (SCC) at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?s conference in St. Petersburg, Russia. Here, participating countries agreed to establish a regional anti-terrorism body, the Shanghai Cooperative Organization, with a discrete and non-binding charter to lay the legal and political foundation for cooperation and development between Shanghai?s cooperative body and other international organizations.
Despite continuing problems over a range of concerns, Sino-Russian bilateral relations in areas of economic trade, energy cooperation, collaboration on military technology, and the improved mechanism of current strategic cooperation are all showing positive signs. The huge potential to resolve a series of regional and global problems indicates that a breakthrough in US-Russian relations, this time, hasn?t come at the expense of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation.
It appears that developments in Sino-US relations have not made as much progress as those involving Russian and the US. Yet, with Sino-US affairs constituting one of the most important bilateral relationships in this post cold war era, it?s palpable that improved anti-terrorism cooperation will work toward safeguarding regional security, and attracting proper attention both at home and aboard.
At a time when Russian-US relations are making momentous progress, it is significant that China too welcome these international advancements. This declaration will not only reflect China?s evolving attitudes towards the outside world, but also demonstrate the possibility of formal trilateral associations between China, Russia and the US.
However, it also must be recognized that current developments in major power relationships are being accompanied by many unparalleled trends. These developments cannot hide the rise and fall of major powers and the changing nature of their historical antagonists.
Sharp contrasts are being displayed between the increasingly unilateral tendency of US, and the multi-lateral cooperation being advanced by the rest of the world. One year on, from Sept. 11, and the world is gradually beginning to recognize the Bush administration?s unwillingness to shift foreign policy to more a multilateral platform. On the contrary, Bush and his advisors tend to be taking an ever more hawkish stance.
The picture now is that China and Russia are both adopting a restrained and flexible approach to the US in order to maintain the benefits of bilateral relations for the longer term. In this respect, the international community, since Sept.11, is seeing rise to the polarization of ?multilateral vs. unilateral? concerns, a phenomena that has not been seen since the end of the cold war era.
Major power shifts since Sept.11 suggest that a power structure not unlike that of the Roman Empire may be on the horizon. But this power configuration has not won the support of key international instruments such as the WTO, WB, IMF or NATO. Currently, international relations are still in a transitional phase with many issues still to be resolved.
What is more, Sept.11 has served to strengthen many new trends and issues that have emerged since the end of the Cold War. Of these new issues, whether or not the US will direct like a supreme ruler, or defer to multilateral cooperation, is of fundamental importance. Although the US has already attained a unique level power, it will surely miss out on the support of international community should it attempt to govern the world with Romanesque conceit. From an economic perspective, the WTO, WB, and IMF are not apparatus dominated by the US to serve its interests of global hegemony. In terms of politics, the most vital international organization, the United Nations, no longer bows to the demands of the US, as once was the case. Even NATO is refusing to accept the US?s unilateralist stance.
Finally, another noticeable occurrence since Sept.11 has been the rise and fall of major powers concentrated in the Asia sub-region. Several areas representing tensions between major powers, such as Afghanistan, Kashmir, the Middle East, and the Korean peninsula, all remind people the importance of regional cooperation and mutually beneficial mechanisms to protect peace and stability in the area.
The author is director of the Russian Studies Center at the East China Normal University.
(china.org.cn, translated by Zheng Guihong, September 17, 2002)
