At the end of each year, the Sociology Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences publishes a review of the social/economic development in the country during the previous year and makes forecasts for the coming year. The most recent Analysis and Forecast of Social Development in China sees the following seven trends for China in 2002:
The 16th CPC Congress Will Be Especially Significant
The Communist Party of China (CPC) will convene its 16th national congress during the latter half of 2002 -- the ninth national congress of the CPC since it became the ruling party in China in 1949 and the first meeting of the CPC in the 21st century. As always, the public expects much of a meeting that outlines guidelines for social and economic undertakings for the foreseeable future.
The 16th Communist Party of China Congress is expected to emphasize theoretical innovation, improve Party style, and reform related systems and norms of the Party. Such reforms will continue those begun in the mid-late 1980s, but they will be implemented in a more systematic and effective way, thanks to experience gained over the past dozen years. According to Analysis and Forecast of Social Development in China, the Communist Party of China?s positive response to tremendous social and economic changes in the country will lead to even more extensive changes in China's political, social and economic lives.
Economic Growth Will Support Social Development
The Chinese economy is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of some 7 percent despite an unfavorable global economy and many problems at home. Authoritative economists say that for the immediate future in China a 7.8 percent growth rate on balance can be expected. The central government will continue in 2002 to stimulate domestic market demand and meanwhile pay more attention to the interrelationship between various policies so that these policies can be as productive as possible.
The central government also will put high on its agenda economic work to avoid risks, financial and otherwise. Major policy concerns will include the readjustment of the industrial structure, promotion of high-tech industries and exports, and development of agriculture. Other policies can be expected in response to a changing economy.
Public and Official Morality Will Be a Major Area of Concern
In September and October of 2001, the Party Central Committee issued two important documents concerning improvement of the ruling party?s work style and the establishment of a citizens? code of conduct. China?s media gave wide coverage to the significance of these two documents, laying a solid foundation for their implementation in 2002 and following years. In regard to the ruling party?s work style, the focus will be on improvements in the Party?s system through strengthening ideological education, aiming at stronger ties between the ruling party and the masses and addressing any negative social and political effects caused by the misconduct of some Party officials.
To the Public, Social Stability and a Higher Living Standard Will Be Foremost
Many surveys have shown that most Chinese citizens put a high value, as usual, on expectations of stability, including stable career, stable income, and stable living environment. Of course, the public also expects stability in the nation?s politics, economy and policies.
As urban residents are under increasingly heavy pressure to spend much of their income on support for the elderly, medicine and children?s education, according to investigations by several organizations, an important trend next year will be the public?s anticipation of a higher income to ward off these mounting pressures in life.
In 2002, the disposable income of urban residents is expected to increase at a rate of 5.8 percent; the per capita net income of rural residents by 3.1 percent. This means a declining income growth rate for urban residents and a very slow growth rate for rural residents.
A survey of residents in 10 cities conducted by China Central TV Station and the National Bureau of Statistics in 2001 cited medical reform, social security and unemployment as the top three concerns: All directly associated with the mounting pressures cited above which -- because of various historical and realistic reasons -- will be difficult to remove at this time. Naturally, the majority place hope on an increase of their income, which will become an important criterion on which the public will judge related government policies.
In Various Fields, Reforms Will Go Deeper
Structural reform in 2002 can be expected to be continued in a positive but prudent way by the government through coordinating various reform measures in different fields to try to eliminate any negative side-effects of some the reform moves.
Reform of the social security system, which was launched late, is undergoing a very difficult process. However, the government will give social security priority in 2002 with attempts to improve various specific measures. Various local governments can expect to receive greater powers of decision. Some coastal provinces have been experimenting on a new system of guaranteeing rural residents a minimum-cost-of-living standard while some relatively underdeveloped regions still have difficulties in implementing the existing system. The central government will give its attention to coordinating the overall picture while encouraging local innovation. The policies guiding reforms of pension, unemployment, medical and charity systems gradually have been established, yet problems arise as the policies are implemented, such as shortage of funds and friction from the transition from the old system to the new one. But it is expected that the government will respond in a positive way to these problems with a significant breakthrough in reforming this wide-reaching sector.
Reform of the state-owned enterprises will become even more pressing in the new year, especially with the challenges from China?s entry into the World Trade Organization. Administrative and market forces will be the engines of reforms that the public hopes will make government decision-making more scientific and reasonable. The introduction of reforms to these highly monopolized industries -- civil aviation, railway, electrical power, telecommunications and petroleum -- will depend to a great extent on government initiative.
WTO Membership Will Open the Door Wider
The year 2002 marks China?s first year as an official WTO member. All relevant laws and regulations will be upgraded to conform to international standards and practice. Although such changes may not be obvious in the short run, they mark the start of a new process.
The implementation of international standards and practice will require, first of all, that some government departments improve their operations, thereby giving greater impetus to changes in society. Public access to information in many areas will be enhanced while at the same time individuals will have more choices concerning career, place to live, travel abroad and access to legal services. A more invigorated society is predicted for 2002.
Unemployment to Remain a Grim Issue
With the continuing of industrial restructuring and reforms of state-owned enterprises, many workers will lose their jobs next year. The coming few years will see the peak of the rural labor supply in China, with the annual increased number of rural laborers estimated at 8.57 million. At least 6 million of these people are expected to leave their hometowns for job opportunities in the city. In view of that many rural residents will become urbanites thanks to the reform in some places of the urban population registration system, laborers who cannot find a job will be enrolled on an urban unemployed list. The registered unemployment rate is therefore expected to go up in 2002.
(china.org.cn by Jiang Wandi, January 9, 2002)
The English version of Analysis and Forecast of Social Development in China is not yet available. The full text in Chinese is available on online at china.com.cn 中国社会形势分析预测.
