Every November 18 for the past three years, Shi Wei, a student at Shanghai University of Engineering Science, has spent the night gazing at the sky in hopes of seeing the Leonid meteor storm - an astronomical phenomenon he calls the "holy fireworks."
Every year for the past three years, Shi has been disappointed. But this year he will head to the astronomy station on Sheshan Hill to spend one more night staring at the sky.
"The Leonid meteor storm is the most brilliant scene in the world," the university freshman said.
Shi is one of the city's many astronomy enthusiasts who use cameras, telescopes and radios to search and record what many astronomers call the grandest meteor shower in the solar family.
Scientists with the Nanjing-based Purple Mountain Observatory - the country's top astronomy authority - predict local astronomers are in for a great show this year.
"When the storm occurs, Shanghai will be shadowed in deep night and the 'illuminant' of the storm will rise from the east," said Xu Pinxin, a chief meteor storm scientist at Purple Mountain.
Leonid meteoroids are small bits of debris shed by a comet named 55P/T Temple-Tuttle, which orbits the sun elliptically once every 33 years.
Like a dirt-filed dump truck on a bumpy road, the comet leaves a moving "river of rubble" trail along its orbit.
The Earth should pass near enough to the comet's orbit every 33 years for astronomers to enjoy the show. Unfortunately, astronomers have had a tough time forecasting the event recently.
Now Shi and his ilk are basing their hopes on British astronomer David Asher and Australian astronomer Robert McNaught - both of whom disagree with traditional comet-based forecasting of the Leonid storm. They put forward an innovative meteor-based prediction in 1999 saying that the real outburst would occur in 2001 or 2002.
"The past century didn't allow any Chinese on the mainland to enjoy any meteor shower in a real sense," Xu said.
If Asher and McNaught are correct - and Xu thinks they are - locals will have a great opportunity to watch the meteor storm from midnight on November 18 to 3 a.m. the next day.
While Xu and Shi are excited by the news, local interest in the event is falling due to the numerous false predictions over the last several years.
More than 3,000 astronomy enthusiasts and numerous members of the media gathered at Sheshan station hoping to see Leonid in 1998, but so far only some 200 fans have registered to climb the mountain for the meteoroid shower this year.
(eastday.com November 6, 2001)
