A new survey of economic forecasts conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics provides a cause for optimism among watchers of China's financial future.
Out of 100 leading economic experts who responded to the survey, 63 said the domestic economy will have brighter prospects this year than it did in 2000 mainly due to the State's continuing active fiscal policy, expected increases in farmers' income and planned wage raises for urban State employees, the bureau said in a press release yesterday.
All is not rosy, however. The other 37 economists expressed reservations about this year because the global economy as a whole is showing signs of slowdown, and they fear this will affect China's economic expansion.
The survey, conducted by the bureau's China Economic Monitoring & Analysis Centre, involved renowned economists and professors from a number of research centres and universities, including the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Tsinghua University.
On average, the economists and professors predicted the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 7.7 percent this year.
Seventy-one guessed the GDP growth for 2001 will range from 7.5 to 8 percent, and eight said they believed it will be higher than 8 percent.
The State's fiscal and monetary policies will guarantee steady increase of investment and consumption, therefore allowing for the possibility of a high growth rate, according to 79 of the respondents.
A minority - 21 of the experts surveyed - put the rate at between 7 and 7.5 percent, claiming China would not be able to escape the ripple effect of slowdowns in major economies like those of the US and the European Union, both of which are major importers of Chinese goods. In 2000, China's growth rate stood at 8 per cent, according to the bureau's 2000 Statistical Communique distributed on Wednesday.
Many of those who said they didn't believe China's GDP would grow significantly expressed little concern. They suggested that there is no need for China to pursue higher growth rates because it is more important for the State to carry out industrial restructuring.
But those who are pro-growth claim industrial restructuring and growth can be pursued at the same time. Seventy-six of the experts surveyed said they believed restructuring industries and bridging the development gap between China's eastern and western regions will be the top two factors in increasing the GDP growth rate.
Encouragement of both investment and consumption among ordinary people is also important if the government wants to spur economic growth, the survey found.
Most of the survey's respondents predicted that the rate of growth for the fixed asset investment this year would be lower than or equal to that of 2000, which stood at 9.7 percent.
As a result of the planned pay raise for employees of the government and State-owned enterprises, gradual completion of a social security system, and the perpetuation of preferential policies for housing and tourist development, China's markets will be more robust than in 2000, according to the survey.
(China Daily 03/03/2001)
