Chinese strategists believe the challenge from hegemony and problems caused by splittism will be the main pressures on security that China will face in the new century.
China's road to rejuvenation is by no means a smooth one, said Luo Yuan, director of Second Office of the Department of Strategic Studies of the Academy of Military Science of the People's Liberation Army, adding that it is necessary to make a clear assessment of China's security situation at the beginning of new century.
"Military allies, the arms race and nationalities splittism are still the threats to the security in the Asia-Pacific region," he said, noting the force behind the threat is the vicious expansion of hegemony.
"Such growing power politics is poisoning the trend towards multipolarity, undermining the conditions necessary for establishing new political and economic orders, and breeding the potential danger of an arms race," he said.
Luo's remarks were echoed by Peng Guangqian, famous Chinese strategist and military analyst.
While recognizing that factors that safeguard world peace are growing constantly, such as the sustained development of the tendency towards multipolarity and economic globalization, Peng pointed out that the world is still far from being multipolarized, as the former strategic balance was shattered by the ending of the Cold War.
"The present strategic imbalance will not disappear quickly," Peng said.
Yet, it is very clear that the pursuit of hegemony threatens the security interests of other countries and expands the arms race.
Just in the areas around China, about 300 military exercises take place every year, and most of them are directed against China.
Peng, also a researcher at the Academy of Military Science, said the Chinese government firmly pursues a national defense policy that is defensive in nature, restricted in input and moderate in scale.
"It doesn't mean our defence is passive," said Peng, characterizing Chinese defense strategy as being designed to forestall a war from happening; to stop a war from accelerating; to prepare for a war if necessary and to win a war if involved.
Peng criticized the United States' pursuit of absolute supremacy in the military sphere, saying it will tip the global balance, trigger a new arms race and jeopardize international security.
He was referring to the United States' plan for its National Missile Defense and Theatre Missile Defense.
"Many countries are forced to follow suit for self-defense because they need a sense of security," he said, adding that amending the treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems in order to pursue these new defense systems will have formidable, adverse global impacts.
At the same time, after reviewing the high-level exchanges between China and the United States, experts indicated that bilateral relations will continue to be the most important element in diplomacy for both sides.
Sino-US Ties: The Stronger the Better
The former US President George Bush paid a working visit to China in 1989 and sent his national security adviser Brent Scowcroft to Beijing. President Bill Clinton, his defense secretary, his secretary of state, his secretary of the treasury, and his secretary of commerce have all been to China.
Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji also have made significant visits to the United States during the past three years.
Undoubtedly, both sides have a strong wish to build a stronger and better Sino-US relationship in the future.
Luo said China hopes that the new president of the United States will handle Sino-US relations appropriately, with wide vision and strategic perspective.
Jiang and Zhu urged the US government to earnestly implement the three communiques between the Chinese and US governments and fulfill the series of promises it has made.
Taiwan Issue
Chinese military experts reiterated that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will never commit itself to ruling out the use of force on the Taiwan question.
The possibility of "Taiwan independence" is making it a more arduous task for the PLA to achieve the complete reunification of the country, said Luo.
He said that Taiwan's new leader's performance had exposed his pro-independence stand.
"The essence of the new leader's comments that unification is not the only option for Taiwan and that Taiwan is an independent sovereign state, indicates his adherence to separatist activities," Luo said.
Luo also refuted the remarks that there is no big problems across the Straits, noting that on the contrary, the contradiction has been deepening by the Taiwan leader's de facto separatist words and deeds.
Taking into account that the Taiwan question is the most important and sensitive issue in bilateral relations, Peng indicated that there is no reason for the United States to sell weapons to Taiwan.
He said that the US's so-called principle of "maintaining the military balance across the Straits" makes no sense, adding that such a "wrong-headed policy" is "encouraging separatists," and "stands for Taiwan's splittism."
If we commit ourselves to a complete renunciation of the use of force, it can only make peaceful reunification impossible and lead to the final settlement of the question by use of force, the expert said.
"Only by maintaining the military imbalance can we ensure that the nation will not be separated," Peng said, noting that no sovereign country will permit the existence of a military balance with its separatists.
He said talk of military balance is fine between separate states, but is not applicable in the case of a country's internal affairs.
"There is no reason for military conflicts between China and the United States except over the question of Taiwan," he concluded.
(China Daily 01/09/2001)
