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Confirmation from a high-ranking official this week on the merger of the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen threw more light on the shake-up of the stock markets in China and the impending second board launch.

Shanghai Mayor Xu Kuangdi was reported to have said on Tuesday that the clearing system for the two main boards will be merged to Shanghai by the first half of next year, which would pave the way for a final merger of the two exchanges, according to chinadaily.com.cn.

This is so far the most authoritative public statement regarding the timetable for building a unified main board exchange in China since the rumours spread early this year.

If merged, the move would produce the third biggest stock market in Asia, behind Tokyo and Hong Kong, and involve a market value of more than 4.3 billion yuan (US$ 500 billion).

After China's expected entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO), foreign investors and fund managers would be allowed to invest in domestic bourses. The merger of the two main boards is part of efforts from authorities to prepare for the entry, analysts said.

Xu also told reporters that the Shenzhen exchange had stopped registering new initial public offerings in September.

Shenzhen's main board is believed to be eventually replaced by a NASDAQ-style second board, which has been the center of focus among stock investors in the past 10 months.

Analysts said the second board debut, of which the release is still undetermined, would bring a major shock to the main boards, especially during the initial public offering period.

But the analysts also warned that high expectations for the new market also require careful regulation design for the share issuing.

Otherwise it might involve big risks in trading or irrational fund outflow from the main board.

While providing good funding channels for high-tech start-ups, the second board would also contain more unpredictable elements in future development featured by the high-growth and high-risk mode.

Analysts have predicted that the second board would divert some 50 billion yuan (US$ 6 billion) of funds from the main boards.

And the new share prices would not be so low as to not make a good start and avoid over-speculation.

The average stock price per share in the new market was predicted to range between 30 to 40 yuan (US$ 3.6-4.8).

The price level would ensure active trading during the initial period after the launch while avoiding too much profit-taking.

(People's Daily 11/12/2000)