In the latest published economic blue paper, "2001 China:
Economic Situation Analysis and Forecasts", many authoritative
Chinese experts expressed in an article their views that an
inflationary phenomenon will not necessarily emerge in China
next year. In 2001, economic restructuring will outweigh the
expansion of economic aggregate, ruling out the possibility
of a rapidly heating up of the economy.
The blue paper
analyzes that since the latter half of 1997 China has witnessed
a negative price hike. In 2000, the inertia of the negative
price rise still remains. In its macro-policy, the government
continues to pursue a pro-active fiscal policy and, at the
same time, calls for a full play to the role of a stabilized
monetary policy and a delay of implementing related consumption
reform measures that will restrain the current consumption.
According to the statistics of the first three quarters of
2000, the current macroeconomic operation has basically entered
a state of "zero-inflation and high growth", basically
eliminating the situation of the negative price rise.
That was followed
by a substantial increase in the stock of money, then, will
the inflation occurred several years ago repeat itself in
2001? According to the blue paper, this situation will not
necessarily occur. In 2001, as economic restructuring will
outweigh the expansion of economic aggregate, it is barely
possible for a rapidly heating up economy to occur.
The blue paper
draws its conclusions on this basis are: in the aspect of
demand, firstly, future investment will slow down; secondly,
the consumption will maintain the momentum of steady growth;
finally, the scale of trade surplus will continue to decline.
Viewed from the
general trend of the macroeconomic development, the macro-economy
in 2001 will remain in the state of a steady development.
The economic growth is expected to fluctuate on a fairly high
platform, standing at a growth rate of 7.5 percent to 8.5
percent. Under such circumstances, a basic balance between
total supply and total demand can be achieved.
(People's Daily 12/05/2000)
|
