By Xu Guangyu
At the Fifth Session of the 10th National People's
Congress, it was announced that the country's military budget
for 2007 is 350.92 billion yuan, or roughly US$44.94 billion. This
marks a 17.8 percent increase over the previous year, or US$6.8
billion.
The increase has drawn wide attention from the international
community. Many express misgivings out of sheer misunderstanding.
But some look at the increase through tainted
glasses or stretch the matter to suit their own ends. Others try to
use the growth in China's military spending to create a propaganda
splash.
A famous Chinese saying goes: "Seeking truth after facts." There
is a similar saying in the West: "Facts speak louder than words."
These two sayings apply to evaluating China's military spending
increase.
I would like to offer my point of view in the hope of clearing
away misunderstanding.
First comes the question: Why the increase by the unprecedented
wide margin of 17.8 percent?
The growth is primarily caused by the sharp increase in the
wages, living expenses, and pensions of 2.3 million People's
Liberation Army officers, civilian personnel, soldiers, and army
retirees. The pay rise came in the latter half of 2006.
Large numbers of officers from battalion level down and
non-commissioned officers received the sharpest pay rise of 100
percent.
These people constitute the backbone of the military forces,
directly involved in leading soldiers in military duties, training
programs, and logistical activities. On the personal side, they are
the primary source of income for their families. Over a long period
of time, their wages have remained very modest.
In view of all this, it is imperative to raise their pay by
large margins.
The pay of the officers from the regimental level up, civilian
personnel, and army retirees has also been increased by 80
percent.
At the same time, all rank-and-file soldiers' living allowances
and board expenses have also been increased.
The composition of the Chinese military expenditure is roughly
the same as that of the United States. Wages, housing, and services
take up almost one-third of the total spending.
For example, look at the figures for 2006. These categories of
expenditure stood at US$12 billion, within the total US$38.1
billion. Of this US$12 billion, US$8 billion went to wages, living
costs ,and pensions.
With the rise in the budget by an average of 60 percent in 2007,
the total increase in these categories reaches US$4.8 billion. This
accounts for the lion's share in the growth of 2007's total
military spending.
Of course, spending on hardware research and development and
weapons procurement has also increased. And the money spent on
training and exercises and on maintaining military activities has
risen, too. But this kind of spending growth pales beside the
increase in personnel expenditures.
It is unlikely that military personnel wages will go up by large
margins every year. So, the possibility is extremely low that the
country's military spending will increase dramatically in the
coming years.
There is another question: Does China's military expenditure
outstrip its actual needs now that the 2007 Chinese military budget
has surpassed Japan's US$42 billion and Germany's US$37.5? It still
trails Britain's US$62.38 billion and France's US$50.78 billion. It
is a fraction of the United States' US$532.8 billion,
China's military spending falls far behind that of many other
countries, whether in terms of actual amount, military personnel
per capita expenditure, or the general population per capita
military spending.
The country's military budget ranks fourth among the world
countries and its GDP also stands fourth in the world. Coincidence?
Maybe. I think the two number 4 positions are logically connected
to each other.
China is a big country. The military is, therefore, obligated
with overwhelmingly heavy tasks in defending the country. To
compound this, the country is threatened by separatism, terrorism,
and hegemonism. In view of all this, China's sizable military
spending is totally justified.
My latest research shows that a country would find it hard to
achieve military modernization if military personnel per capita
spending remained below $100,000.
The US military's per capita budget in 2007, for instance, is
$383,000, the highest in the world. Next comes Britain
(US$324,000), followed by Japan (US$175,000), Germany (US$148,000)
and France (US$146,000).
In contrast, China's per capita spending on its soldiers is only
US$19,540. The country has set a rather moderately paced timetable
by today's international standards to modernize its military
forces. Extending to 2050, it covers three stages: from 2006 to
2010, from 2010 to 2020, and from 2020 to 2050.
It is predicted that, during these three phases of military
modernization, China's military budget will increase moderately
each year to keep up with the country's economic development and
its defense needs. This is aimed at closing the wide military
strength gaps between the country and the world's military
powers.
Does China's military expenditure outstrip its actual defense
needs? Facts constitute the best gauge.
Western military analysts are very clear that Chinese fleets,
air force, ground troops and strategic rocket forces are on a
secondary tier with the world's leading military powers in terms of
quality and quantity of its core battle equipment.
The basic facts and stark reality determine that it is
impossible for China to enter an arms race with the world's
military powers. Most important of all, China's State strategy and
military strategy are geared to peaceful development and active
defense.
The ultimate goal is to build a harmonious society inside the
country and a world in harmony outside. So the country needs no
military expansion or a strategy designed for military interference
overseas. China has no military bases overseas and the country has
never launched pre-emptive attacks against others.
By all measures, Chinese military expenditure is still very
humble.
The author is a council member of China Arms Control and
Disarmament Association
(China Daily March 15, 2007)