Stronger-than-expected economic figures have prompted a number
of international economic research institutions to revise upwards
their forecasts for China's gross domestic product (GDP)
growth.
Almost all the major economic indexes in the first two months of
this year have exceeded those for the same period last year.
"The country's GDP growth in the first quarter will be faster
than in the equivalent period last year and also that of the
previous quarter," Chen Dongqi, deputy director of the Institute of
Economic Research of the National Development and Reform
Commission, said.
The State Information Center has adjusted its GDP growth
forecast for the first quarter from 10.2 percent to about 11
percent.
Despite the government last year adopting a number of tightening
measures, economic growth has shown clear signs of rebounding in
the past quarter.
Statistics show that urban fixed-asset investment picked up
moderately to 23.4 percent year-on-year in January-February, and
from about 20 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, reversing
the trend of a gradual slowdown since last July.
Meanwhile, the trade surplus registered a massive leap of 230
percent, and retail sales were up 14.7 percent on the first two
months of last year.
"Industrial growth is a key driving force behind overall
economic growth, and power generation is also a useful indicator,"
Chen said.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's
industrial output rose 18.5 percent year-on-year while industrial
profits soared 43.8 percent in the first two months.
Growth in power generation also accelerated to 16.6 percent
year-on-year from less than 14 percent in the same period last
year.
Despite expectations the government will introduce another round
of tightening measures soon, global investment bank, Lehman
Brothers, still revised up its forecast for the Chinese
economy.
According to a recent report by the firm, the first quarter
growth forecast has been raised from 9.8 percent to 10.1 percent,
and the annual growth rate from 9.6 percent to 9.8 percent.
"In the light of the stronger-than-expected figures in the first
two months of this year and the likely policy responses, we have
lifted our full-year growth projections for this year to 10 percent
from 9.1 percent, based mainly on stronger growth in credit,
investment and exports," Qu Hongbin, the chief China economist with
HSBC, said.
Domestic banks extended new loans of 982 billion yuan (US$127
billion) in the first two months of this year compared with 716
billion yuan (US$92 billion) in the same period of 2006.
The government forecast early last month that the country's GDP
is to grow by about 8 percent this year.
The country has just witnessed four consecutive years of
double-digit growth, including 10.7 percent GDP growth last year,
the fastest in a decade.
The latest official forecast reflects the authorities'
determination to shift the focus of economic growth from quantity
to quality.
(China Daily April 2, 2007)