Multipolar world, unipolar initiative

According to the US Trade Representative (USTR) Ron Kirk, the TPP will be a “high-standard, broad-based regional pact.” In practice, U.S. negotiators have included in the TPP non-trade-related issues, including labor matters, environmental laws and intellectual property rights.

While the imposition of non-trade-related issues would be extremely challenging in the multilateral Doha Round, it is easier in bilateral regional talks. That is why Jagdish Bhagwati, a leading free-trade economist, sees America as a threat to Trans-Pacific Trade. “If I want to join a golf club, I need to play golf,” he says. “But I should not have to go to church and sing hymns with the other club members.”

Acceptance of non-trade-related demands has little to do with true free trade and such requirements certainly should not be a precondition for joining the TPP. However, historically, it is déjà vu all over again.

In the aftermath of the NAFTA in the early 1990s, Washington sought to extend that agreement with non-trade-related concessions via the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). Regionally, the effort crumbled against Brazil’s opposition. The then-President Lula, a popular union leader, rejected the inclusion of labor standards in trade treaties and institutions. As he saw it, the FTAA sought to extend U.S. rules and regimes across the Americas.

Instead of opening South America to free trade, the FTAA split South America into two blocs. Now, a similar drama is evolving in Asia Pacific. As a result, the negotiations have been clouded by secrecy, which has resulted in protests and calls for transparency internationally and in Washington. As US Senator Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) has put it, “the majority of Congress is being kept in the dark as to the substance of the TPP negotiations.” According to the WikiLeaks releases of the TPP drafts, secrecy serves to cover the deepening divisions between Washington and other nations, particularly the “great pressure” being exerted by the U.S. negotiators to move other nations to their negotiating position.

Instead of a de jure multilateral agreement, the TTP focus is likely to be on a de facto set of bilateral agreements to accommodate the great diversity of the putative members and to resort to exemptions and protection of sensitive sectors – including sheltered US agricultural sectors.