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SCIO briefing on macroeconomic situation and policies

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Nanfang Daily, Nanfang Plus:

This year, China's economic performance has started off well, but there are still many existing problems and contradictions. Could you please provide insights into the key measures that will be implemented to further drive the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy? Thank you.

Yuan Da:

Thank you for your question. As I mentioned earlier, the economy in the first quarter has seen a good start, but we are also keenly aware of the challenges and difficulties in economic operation. The external environment is complex, severe and uncertain, with insufficient effective demand. Some industries and enterprises are facing operational difficulties and risks persist in certain areas.

Regarding these issues, the Central Economic Work Conference last year conducted forward-looking analysis and made systematic arrangements. The Government Work Report further outlined plans, and relevant parties are currently working diligently to address them. Some issues have shown signs of improvement. For example, the manufacturing PMI, indicating market expectation, has returned to expansion territory in March. Certain issues have exhibited new changes. For instance, the demand problem has seen net exports contributing positively to economic growth in the first quarter, compared to the negative contribution in the quarter before. Changes have also been observed in market consumption patterns with the growth rate of catering retail sales declining from 13.9% in the same period last year to 10.8%, while the growth rate of petroleum and product retail sales decreased from 10.3% to 4.5%. Some risks and hidden dangers have accumulated over the long term and require further concerted efforts to resolve.

To effectively carry out our work in the second quarter, it is essential to prioritize implementation. We must steadfastly adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and comprehensively implement the arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. This will further solidify and bolster the positive trend of economic recovery. Our focus will be on the following three key aspects:

First, we will strive to implement established policies and key tasks more efficiently. This involves ramping up the implementation of macroeconomic policies, effectively utilizing the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. We will coordinate policies across various sectors including industry, investment, consumption, employment and pricing to ensure consistency in our macroeconomic policy direction and foster a collective policy effort. Specifically, we will expedite the implementation of major initiatives such as equipment upgrades, trade-in programs for consumer goods and the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support national major strategies and enhance security capacity in crucial areas.

Second, we will intensify efforts to address primary contradictions and challenges. This entails actively stimulating domestic demand by expediting the allocation of central budget investments and the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds. We will employ a new mechanism for collaboration between government and social capital, and increase consumption of such goods as automobiles, household appliances and smartphones and also consumption of services like cultural and tourism services. Furthermore, we will vigorously advance the construction of a modern industrial system, pursue greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology and propel the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. We will also support the expansion of new growth drivers such as future industries. Through a comprehensive approach encompassing demand expansion, supply optimization, reform deepening and reserve adjustment, we will ensure price stability at reasonable levels. Additionally, we will deepen reforms in pivotal sectors and effectively implement strategies to attract and utilize foreign investment more robustly. Special attention will be given to facilitating employment for certain key groups such as college graduates, and risks and hidden dangers in key sectors will be addressed.

Third, we will enhance major policy planning and conduct preparatory research to maintain policy options for different eventualities. In response to changing domestic and international environments and evolving development needs, we will conduct thorough major policy planning. For instance, we will explore how to establish the new before abolishing the old and accelerate the development of new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions. Furthermore, we will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting and early warning, and ensure ongoing preparatory research to maintain macroeconomic policy options for different eventualities. We will also enhance our ability to design cross-cyclical policies and provide effective countercyclical adjustments. This will ensure that we are equipped with adequate and effective policy tools to address various impacts and challenges.

The worth of any plan lies in its implementation. In our upcoming work, we will prioritize effective implementation, problem-solving and coordination, enhancing the delivery and application of macro policies at the micro level to ensure tangible results and to make policies more perceptible and accessible. Thank you!

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