China's key economic data for last month, due to be released over the following days, may provide a platform for policies to be loosened to boost the slowing economy, analysts said.
When inflationary pressures are waning and exports as well as industrial output may moderate further, analysts expected China's chief decision makers, who are now in Beijing to map out the nation's economic work plan for next year, to roll out more measures.
"The November data may give more support for stronger policies to boost the moderating economy," said Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co. "While the central bank has made the sharpest interest rate cuts in more than a decade last month, we expect measures to turn to other fronts, such as raising the threshold of individual income tax or lending a helping hand to exporters," said Li.
He estimated the Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, to grow about 3 percent last month, down from 4 percent a month earlier because of stable food prices and lower energy costs.
The Producer Price Index, the factory-gate inflation measurement, may grow between 5 percent and 6 percent last month, a drop from 6.6 percent in October after the costs of basic commodities and materials fell sharply in past months.
China is due to release the PPI and CPI data today and tomorrow, and other data, including retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset investment, in the next few days.
"We should pay special attention to the retail sales for November, which can reflect people's confidence in the economy through their spending," said Xu Hua, an analyst with Bohai Securities Co.
Because of the weaker external demand reeling from the global financial crisis, China's policy makers have set the target of next year's growth at about 8 percent, with domestic consumption as a major driver to sustain economic growth.
(Shanghai Daily December 10, 2008)
