China's monthly trade surplus probably topped US$30 billion for the first time, despite drastic gain in value for yuan against the US dollar.

 

The gap widened 29 percent in October from a year earlier to US$30.8 billion, according to the median estimate of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The government may release the figure as early as today.

 

Exports likely rose 22.8 percent in October from a year earlier, the same pace as in September, the Bloomberg News survey showed. Imports probably increased 19.2 percent after a 16.1-percent gain in the previous month.

 

The yuan headed for its biggest weekly advance against the dollar since 2005, gaining more than 0.60 percent. Faster yuan appreciation could reduce the inflow of money by making exports more expensive.

 

"Faster exchange-rate appreciation would be the best way to manage the excess liquidity," said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.

 

China's central bank said on Thursday in a monetary-policy report that it will "strengthen the role of prices in managing the economy" and improve the coordination of interest-rate and exchange-rate policies.

 

It also said moderate currency appreciation may help to ease inflation pressures.

 

Consumer prices rose 6.2 percent in September from a year earlier, almost the fastest pace in a decade.

 

The predicted October surplus would bring the 10-month total to a record US$216.4 billion, up 62 percent from a year earlier. Export volumes are biggest in the final quarter because of Christmas shipments.

 

"The level of exports is so far above the level of imports that imports would have to grow considerably faster than exports just to stop the surplus growing any more," said Mark Williams, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd in London.

 

The expected 29 percent growth in the surplus in October compares with a 56-percent gain in the previous month to almost US$24 billion.

 

(Shanghai Daily November 10, 2007)