A severe labor shortage will damage the economic stability of
the capital of Guangdong Province within the next two to three
decades, authorities have said.
According to a report on the city's current and projected
population structure, released last week by the Guangzhou municipal
statistics bureau, by 2034, the size of the workforce will be less
than half the total population.
The report said the city has been on a fast economic development
track over the past two decades, as the population structure was in
a "bonus period". This means the workforce was larger than the
proportion of people who need to be supported, such as children and
seniors.
The report defines children as people under 14 and seniors as
those aged over 65.
The bulk of the current labor force was born in the baby boom of
1950 to 1965. Most of them will reach retirement age in about 20
years' time.
The report predicts the size of the workforce will stop growing
in 2013.
By 2024, it will comprise fewer people than the number needing
support.
By 2034, the total labor force, including migrant workers, will
be less than 50 percent of the whole population of Guangzhou, the
report said, meaning the bonus period, which started in 1983, will
be replaced by a "debt period".
In a debt period, the size of the labor force continues to
decrease and there are less job opportunities, leading to a general
economic slowdown or recession.
Zheng Zizhen, director of the population research institute of
the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, said: "Debt periods
replacing bonus periods are an inevitable result of social
development.
"The country's family planning policy has helped to postpone the
end of the current bonus period."
One way to postpone the arrival of the debt period is to attract
more migrant workers, Zheng said.
Switching from a labor-intensive economic model to a
technology-intensive one is another, he said.
(China Daily September 4, 2007)
