Experts predict China will likely surpass Japan in the coming
decade to become the world's second largest economy.
A host of China's influential mainstream economists painted the
rosy picture during the weekend at Tianheng Island in East China's
Shandong Province.
Experts said the economic outlook was conditional on whether the
country could swiftly adjust itself to ever-evolving domestic and
global circumstances.
The members of Beijing-based China Economist 50 Forum gathered
to debate the country's "big development topics of strategic
importance" in the coming 10 years, ahead of the 17th Congress of
the Communist Party of China, scheduled for autumn.
Some experts said they believed that China faced obstacles,
including environmental problems and resource constraints, rising
labor costs, imbalanced foreign trade, economic restructuring and
an incomplete social security network.
Even "moral degradation" has been taken as "daunting
challenge".
Despite the challenges, one prediction is that China is on the
way to becoming a world-class economic power only after the United
States by about 2018.
At that time, China's per capita GDP (gross domestic product) is
expected to surge from the current US$1,870 to about US$6,000, a
benchmark between middle- and upper-developed countries.
"The benchmark is of great significance," said Xu Shanda, an
economist chairing the discussion among the members of the
think-tank organization.
The organization also predicated that China's growth pace would
gradually slow down from the current blistering 11.5 percent to 8-9
percent by 2018.
If growth is sustained, China will outpace Japan as the world's
second biggest economy.
Despite the fast growth, the economists reached the consensus
that China should step up its efforts to continue its "balanced
approaches" to tackle "unprecedented challenges" while becoming
globalized.
"I personally believe that the process should be one that moral
standards should be redefined and elevated," Fan Hengshan, director
of regional development department under National Development and
Reform Commission, said.
Yi Gang, assistant governor of People's Bank of China, proposed
that China should continue its "put-people-first" approach to
tackling long-term challenges. "On one hand, we should create a
sound environment for the rich, both at home and from other
economies," Yi said.
(China Daily July 30, 2007)
