There were fresh signs that the British economic outlook may be brightening but unemployment in the country will carry on rising long after the recession ends, The Economist said in its latest issue seen on Saturday.
So far the British employment has fallen by 1 percent since it peaked at 29.5 million in the second quarter of 2008. That is about the same drop as at a similar stage in the economic downturn of the early 1980s, and a bit less than the 1.5-percent decline in the early 1990s, said The Economist in an article in the June 6-12 issue.
However, the UK jobless rate rose from 5.5 percent of the labor force before the previous recession to 11.9 percent three years after it ended in early 1980s. And, in early 1990s, jobless rate increased from 6.9 percent to 10.6 percent after a sustained recovery has started, the article said.
These precedents suggest that the UK unemployment rate, which has already gone up from 5.4 percent in spring 2008 to 7.1 percent now, will carry on rising and end a lot higher, almost certainly above 10 percent, The Economist said.
The ranks of jobless in Britain have already swollen to 2.2 million at present, the largest since 1996.
(Xinhua News Agency June 7, 2009)
