Russia again took a tough stance on international issues by its gas cut-off. Analysts said the Russian move is aimed at exerting pressures on Ukraine, worsening a year-long row between Yushchenkoand Tymoshenko, the two main figures in the Orange Revolution.
In Ukraine, the latest dispute could distract attention to relations with Russia and the EU from domestic economic recession and the tumbling hryvnia currency. Both President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko were under mounting pressure to tackle the urgent economic crisis.
It is generally believed that conflicts between the two neighbors may be avoided only if Kiev modifies its pro-Western stand. Confrontations on the gas issue could only aggravate the conflict, further complicating their bilateral ties.
Unlike 2006, both Moscow and Kiev seemed very tough and hurried to hand the hot potato to the European Union.
Analysts said Ukraine has enough gas in storage facilities to weather the Russian cut-off, noting that Ukraine's financial woes have pared down its energy needs through the winter months.
Ukraine has accumulated in the underground storage facilities around 30 billion cubic meters of gas, with about half belonging to the country. Data show that Ukraine's annual consumption is no more than 74 billion cubic meters.
The global economic crisis has also sharply reduced Ukraine's industrial energy consumption as the country's metallurgical, chemical and building material industries are already suffering from semistagnation. Experts said Russia's threats could hardly scare Ukraine since it has stored at least two or three months of gas reserve.
Russia is also seeking other ways to free itself from the gas dispute. For instance, the energy giant Gazprom is investing a pipeline under the Baltic to bypass Ukraine.
Vladimir Kornilov, political analyst and head of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) Institute in Ukraine, said the two countries are interdependent on energy issues, noting the dispute is no good for the economic interest of both sides and may hurt their international images.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said in a statement on Thursday that gas dispute with Russia will be settled by Jan. 7.
But analysts said the row can only be settled for good when both countries make compromises in their deep-rooted economic and political conflicts.
(Xinhua News Agency January 5, 2009)
