share
 

Stimulus plan seen around 10 trln yuan

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China Daily, October 17, 2024
Adjust font size:

China's much-anticipated fiscal stimulus package could amount to somewhere around 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion), which would represent reasonable and moderate funding to address the most immediate issues facing the world's second-largest economy, policy researchers and advisers said.

They underlined the need for policymakers to avoid any overly massive stimulus that could come at a heavy cost, but instead advance deeper, wider reforms along with the stimulus package to secure a more sustainable transition in growth drivers.

Sheng Zhongming, a research fellow at CF40 Institute, affiliated with the China Finance 40 Forum think tank, said China must confront the key structural issues of local debt risks, government outstanding payables to businesses, real estate concerns and the recapitalization needs of banks.

Effectively addressing these issues will require at least 10 trillion yuan in additional public funds over several years, Sheng said, adding that he anticipates an annual debt swap program of around 2 trillion yuan, with a cumulative total of 5 to 6 trillion yuan required to substantially reduce the debt load in heavily indebted regions.

Charlie Zheng, chief economist at Samoyed Cloud Technology Group Holdings, said that a fiscal stimulus package of around 10 trillion yuan may be essential in 2025 to tackle the key issues highlighted by the finance minister.

The proposed package, which could be financed by ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, would primarily focus on local debt swaps and bank recapitalization, while alleviating the property sector's challenges and supporting people in difficulties, Zheng said.

However, he emphasized that China should not rely solely on stimulus measures to revive the economy, warning of the potential for high inflation and an imbalance between the State-owned and private sectors that could result from overreliance on government spending.

China must advance reforms to boost the private economy at the same time, Zheng said, urging policy clarity for private entrepreneurs that any business is permissible unless prohibited by law, while explaining to government officials that any governmental behavior is infeasible without legal authorization.

Discussions of the size of China's stimulus package heated up after Finance Minister Lan Fo'an said on Saturday that the country plans to increase the debt limit by a large scale and replace local government hidden debt, while recognizing there is "relatively large space" for the central government to raise debt and increase the deficit.

The market is waiting for the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress — the country's top legislature — to convene in late October or early November to approve the specifics of the plan.

Gong Liutang, a professor of applied economics at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, said that if the stimulus package comes to about 10 trillion yuan, it won't be "overly aggressive" given that China's annual GDP has reached 126 trillion yuan.

"The key is for the government to comprehensively communicate with the public regarding details of the package as soon as possible so as to provide more certainty to the market and ensure a steadier recovery in confidence," said Gong, who is also a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the country's top political advisory body.

Compared with the stimulus program initiated in 2008, Gong said the latest round of policy buffer should focus more on enhancing consumption and preventing resource misallocation, with increased spending on education, healthcare and social protection, as well as subsidies for low-income and unemployed individuals.

Upon the recent bigger-than-expected policy stimulus announcement, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's real GDP growth from 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent this year and from 4.3 percent to 4.7 percent in 2025.

"The Chinese government has clearly made a turn on cyclical policy management and increased its focus on growth," a Goldman Sachs report said, adding that a significant policy offset is needed next year due to the property market's lingering drag on GDP growth and the possibility of slowing export growth.

Follow China.org.cn on Twitter and Facebook to join the conversation.
ChinaNews App Download
Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲欧美另类色图| 四虎www成人影院| 91午夜精品亚洲一区二区三区| 年轻的妈妈在完整有限中字第4| 久久久久久久久久久福利| 日韩高清免费观看| 亚洲成av人影片在线观看| 特级毛片www| 好大好湿好硬顶到了好爽视频 | 国产男女猛烈无遮挡免费视频| 91制片厂天美传媒鲸鱼传媒| 大肉大捧一进一出小视频| 五月婷婷免费视频| 欧美性猛交xxxx免费看蜜桃| 亚洲精品国产精品国自产网站 | 日本在线高清版卡免v| 九九久久国产精品免费热6| 欧美性狂猛bbbbbxxxxx| 亚洲欧美成人综合久久久| 波多野结衣痴女系列88| 人人狠狠综合久久亚洲婷婷| 禁忌2电影在线观看完整版免费观看 | 日本高清免费一本视频无需下载| 五月激情综合网| 欧美xxxx做受性欧美88| 亚洲另类自拍丝袜第五页| 欧美综合一区二区三区| 国产18禁黄网站免费观看| 奇米四色77777| 妇女自拍偷自拍亚洲精品| 中国又粗又大又爽的毛片| 推油少妇久久99久久99久久| 久久久久久久久毛片精品| 日本亚洲色大成网站www久久 | 手机在线观看精品国产片| 国产精品无码一区二区三级| 5566中文字幕| 国产自在线观看| 91久国产在线观看| 国产精彩视频在线观看免费蜜芽 | 欧美xxxx狂喷水喷水|