Short-sellers cry wolf again on Chinese economy

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail Xinhua, April 27, 2013
Adjust font size:

Some investment gurus, if they can be called that, periodically express their pessimism about the Chinese economy and short sell Chinese stocks, but it turns out theirs is nothing but a game of crying wolf.

Their bearish tone has mostly proven to be a shortcut for securing handsome profits, with the so-called gurus scooping up bargains after their forecasts result in stocks getting dumped.

The latest episode involved Kynikos Associates founder Jim Chanos, a keen short-seller who has been bearish on China for years.

He recently warned, "There is a credit bubble that's actually not only huge but getting worse," saying China's real estate sector is plagued by asset inflation that does not generate enough cash to service the debt.

He dumped hefty Chinese financial and real estate stocks, inspiring the herd behavior that sent China's stock index plunging on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

However, this time, his words were not pure alarmism. China's economy is contending with a bumpy recovery, as 7.7-percent GDP growth in the first quarter fell short of expectations.

Investment, consumption and exports have grown at more tepid paces. Manufacturing activity has cooled for months, and credit and property bubbles could be time bombs if not properly contained.

Premier Li Keqiang recently said the economy will have to "climb hills and cross ridges," underlining the difficulties and challenges facing the world's second-largest economy, which has said goodbye to breakneck growth.

Nevertheless, it is unnecessary and premature to pile pessimism on the Chinese economy.

Credit bubbles loom large, but have been under tight oversight. At a special session convened Thursday by the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee to review the country's economic situation, the country's top leaders underscored the need to guard against potential risks in financial sectors.

As part of the 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package that saved China from an economic meltdown in 2008, rampant growth in credit has triggered widespread concern, especially regarding mounting local government debt.

The debt has not ballooned in the way that foreign investment banks had forecast. Nevertheless, banking regulators have remained vigilant, telling commercial lenders to carefully monitor loans extended to local government financing vehicles.

Local government debts are protected and guaranteed by the central government, and this is the biggest reason why local governments are unlikely to default. If not with cash, their debts can be repaid through other means, such as asset restructuring.

Harsh property curb policies have prevented property bubbles from inflating further. The government has employed strong administrative forces to regulate pricing, and those measures have surely stemmed speculation and kept prices from skyrocketing.

The construction of subsidized, low-income housing and the expansion of property tax trials will also boost supplies and tame prices.

In fact, speculation that China's property bubbles will burst is likely to be just that -- speculation. Given that China's deepening urbanization drive is driving demand past what land supplies can offer, it is illogical and unrealistic to believe that prices will stay flat or fall in the coming decades.

Now, the government's duty is to prevent prices from surging recklessly, an event that could potentially trigger the kind of social unrest that the country can not afford.

China has lowered its GDP growth target to 7.5 percent for 2012 and 2013, down from 8 percent for the eight previous years. Readings in the past four quarters have stayed below 8 percent, but that has not given rise to jitters, as the government has prioritized balance over speed, and quality over quantity.

At Thursday's meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, which was presided over by General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping, who is also China's president, the central authority vowed to make greater efforts to bring out the potential of domestic consumption, lift or delegate the government's authority in approving investment projects and strictly limit the indiscriminate expansion of energy-inefficient and polluting industries.

The meeting offered details on the Political Bureau's future mind-set in managing the world's second-largest economy under new circumstances. Limiting the government's power in the approval of investment projects has been seen as the most courageous and pragmatic reform announced by the new cabinet yet, and it is expected to help unleash greater growth potential.

Though the days of being obsessed with speed have passed in China, this is not the case among foreign banks and investors. As China acclimates to tepid growth, foreign buyers will continue to fuss about the slower data, as if the slowdown is a sign that the end is near.

Since the top leadership knows that successful restructuring will take time and effort, a one-off stimulus package is unlikely.

China has the patience to embrace healthy growth, but short-sellers also need to exercise patience to secure safe profits.

Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产精品成人99一区无码| 精品久久久久久亚洲综合网| 嫩BBB槡BBBB槡BBBB| 亚洲国产精品白丝在线观看| 蜜臀91精品国产高清在线观看| 国产精品无码不卡一区二区三区| 久久99精品国产麻豆不卡| 欧美精品videosex极品| 国产一区二区三区视频| 黑色毛衣在线播放| 国产精品久久久久三级| 91精品国产免费久久国语麻豆| 奇米影视7777狠狠狠狠影视| 久久国产精品77777| 校草被c呻吟双腿打开bl双性| 亚洲成年人影院| 波多野结衣无限| 人妻少妇无码精品视频区| 青草久久精品亚洲综合专区| 国产欧美综合精品一区二区| √最新版天堂资源网在线| 无遮挡全彩口工h全彩| 亚洲国产成人久久| 欧美系列第一页| 亚洲色大成网站www永久男同| 精品久久洲久久久久护士免费| 国产乱人伦AV麻豆网| 黄色三级电影网址| 国产精品免费一区二区三区四区| 97色偷偷色噜噜狠狠爱网站97| 日本欧美久久久久免费播放网| 亚洲jizzjizz中国少妇中文| 欧美日韩国产区在线观看| 免费一级毛片在播放视频| ssni-436| 成人毛片18女人毛片免费| 中文字幕一区二区人妻性色| 日本人强jizzjizz| 久久狠狠爱亚洲综合影院| 毛片免费全部播放一级| 四虎最新地址在线观看1080p|