Experts say 8% growth possible

0 Comment(s)Print E-mail China Daily, September 11, 2012
Adjust font size:

More than half of China's leading economists think the country's GDP growth may still reach 8 percent this year, fueled by the government's recent efforts to boost the economy, a survey by a major website showed on Monday.

According to the NetEase survey, which covered 100 economists and scholars, 52 percent of interviewees expected China's GDP growth to reach 8 percent.

However, 37 percent held the opposite viewpoint. And 11 percent said it was too difficult to judge the overall situation.

Despite sluggish economic data in the past few months, the majority of economists said the government's efforts to stabilize the economy would have the required effect.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency, last week announced the approval of 25 new urban rail transit and intercity rail line projects with a total investment of more than 800 billion yuan ($127 billion).

The projects, most of which will take three to eight years to complete, are aimed at injecting vitality into the country's slowing economy and improve the investment environment.

Just over half - 55 percent - of the surveyed economists were optimistic about China's economic prospects, saying that the situation would improve in the second half of the year.

But economists at foreign institutions are not so optimistic.

In a recent report, UBS revised China's GDP growth forecast downward from 8 percent to 7.5 percent in 2012, and from 8.3 percent to 7.8 percent in 2013.

"Declining exports and imports may pose the biggest challenge for China's economy in the coming months," Wei Jianguo, former vice-minister of commerce, told China Daily. He said the country might find it hard to hit its trade growth target of 10 percent for the year.

"September and October may be the worst time for China's exports as it is the key season for exporters to grab Christmas orders," said Wei, adding that small and medium-sized enterprises may have a really difficult time.

"Now is the best time for the central government to launch policies, such as tax cuts, to support export-oriented SMEs," Wei said.

Early in 2012, most economists thought China's export growth would bottom out in the first quarter and then stabilize. However, as the eurozone sovereign debt crisis dragged on, the negative impact on the real economy increased throughout the year, and the recovery in US growth has also faltered since the spring.

Wang Tao, China economist at UBS AG, said: "For the fourth quarter this year, we expect a somewhat intensified implementation of the existing policy measures, including an increase in infrastructure investment, but a major new stimulus is unlikely unless the economy worsens sharply. "Therefore, we now think the recovery will be more modest than previously expected."

Around 73 percent of the surveyed economists said China is unlikely to roll out a large-scale economic stimulus plan like it did in 2009.

The previous round of measures has been criticized for being excessive, worsening some structural imbalances, and leading to debt problems at the local government level. Therefore, the threshold for policy action has become higher and the magnitude of policy support has been constrained.

Liu Heng, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said although it is unlikely that the central government will launch a large-scale stimulus package, it may take other measures to boost the economy.

Jing Xuecheng, former research bureau chief of the People's Bank of China, said there is a possibility that local governments may launch stimulus measures.

According to research by UBS, the economic slowdown has been gradual, unlike the sudden collapse in late 2008, and has not led to significant labor market pressures.

The assessments of the current economic situation by different agencies may not have been clear and uniform enough to form strong support for quicker and more substantial policy action.

Print E-mail Bookmark and Share

Go to Forum >>0 Comment(s)

No comments.

Add your comments...

  • User Name Required
  • Your Comment
  • Enter the words you see:   
    Racist, abusive and off-topic comments may be removed by the moderator.
Send your storiesGet more from China.org.cnMobileRSSNewsletter
主站蜘蛛池模板: 黄色一级免费网站| 好爽好多水小荡货护士视频 | 无限看片在线版免费视频大全| 亚洲色图激情文学| a级精品九九九大片免费看| 樱花草在线社区www| 公交车忘穿内裤被挺进小说白| 亚洲综合丁香婷婷六月香| 成人3d黄动漫无尽视频网站| 亚洲一区第一页| 精品国产一区二区三区免费看 | 免费无码又爽又黄又刺激网站| 日本免费网站视频www区| 好妈妈5高清中字在线观看| 中文字幕无码日韩欧毛| 欧美怡红院免费全部视频| 午夜电影成人福利| 久久国产精品女| 夜夜高潮夜夜爽夜夜爱爱| 久久久久国色av免费看| 欧美日本国产VA高清CABAL| 午夜毛片不卡高清免费| 色偷偷91久久综合噜噜噜| 国产精品亚洲欧美一级久久精品| 一本一本久久a久久精品综合麻豆 一本一本久久a久久精品综合麻豆 | 国产精品99无码一区二区| www.日日夜夜| 日本二区在线观看| 亚洲免费视频网址| 男人和女人差差差很疼30分| 国产一卡二卡≡卡四卡无人区| 娇喘午夜啪啪五分钟娇喘| 奇米小说首页图片区小说区| 久久久久久久99精品免费观看| 欧美人与动人物牲交免费观看| 免费在线观看a级毛片| 达达兔欧美午夜国产亚洲| 国产精品久久久久三级| chinese国产xxxx实拍| 好吊妞视频这里有精品| 久久99精品久久久久子伦|