WB: China's 2011 export growth will fall to 12.4%

世行：中國出口增長或降至12.4%

China will no longer depend so much on trade surplus to support its economic growth, according to a report by the World Bank.

The World Bank predicted China's average trade surplus in 2011 and 2012 to stand at about US$200 billion, 2.7 percent of the country's GDP and only 0.2 percentage point of its projected GDP growth. In 2010, the trade surplus accounted for 0.8 percentage point of China's economic growth, while the number was about 2.4 percentage points around 2005.

According to the report, China's exports will grow by 12.4 percent in 2011, which is only about half the country's export growth rate before the financial crisis broke out in 2009.

"With export volumes slowing more rapidly than import volumes, the contribution of net trade to real GDP growth will decline," said the World Bank in its latest China Quarterly Update report.

The less diminished role of trade in supporting China's economic growth is partly because of slack demand, as the rest of the world struggles to recover from the financial crisis, said Louis Kuijs, a Beijing-based senior economist of the World Bank.

The third round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held from May 9 and 10 in Washington D.C. China's policies on currency exchange rate will no doubt be a key focus of the dialogue.

Analysts believe that the World Bank's study may make it even harder for the U.S. to pressure China to further appreciate the yuan, especially after China posted a small trade deficit in the first quarter.

據(jù)世界銀行發(fā)布的中國經(jīng)濟季報中顯示，“中國將不再過多依賴貿(mào)易順差來實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長”。

世界銀行預(yù)計2011年、2012年中國的貿(mào)易順差平均約為2000億美元，只占國民生產(chǎn)總值的2.7%，對GDP預(yù)計增速的貢獻(xiàn)率只有0.2個百分點。去年貢獻(xiàn)率為0.8個百分點。相比之下，2005年前后這一貢獻(xiàn)率約2.4個百分點。

世行預(yù)測，2011年經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整的出口增長率將達(dá)12.4%。而這只相當(dāng)于2009年金融危機爆發(fā)前中國一貫保持的增長率的大約一半。

“由于比過去要小得多，這樣就減少了總體貿(mào)易對中國經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻(xiàn)率。”世界銀行上述報告稱。

世界銀行駐北京高級經(jīng)濟師高路易指出，貿(mào)易在中國經(jīng)濟增長中作用下降的部分原因在于，其他國家和地區(qū)正在從全球金融危機中艱難復(fù)蘇，需求不足。

5 月9日，中美戰(zhàn)略與經(jīng)濟對話將在華盛頓召開，中國的匯率政策無疑會成為焦點。

分析人士認(rèn)為，世行的上述研究，可能令美國敦促人民幣進(jìn)一步升值的工作更加困難，尤其是在今年一季度中國出現(xiàn)小額貿(mào)易逆差這一時期。