Will the Fed launch a third round of quantitative easing?

?美聯儲會實行第三輪量化寬松么？

?With the completion of the second round of quantitative easing (QE) in June, the market is now speculating whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a third round at their April 28 meeting.

It's difficult to accurately predict the Fed's move next week based on current information. However, we can make two predictions about the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

First, judging from recent U.S. economic data, the possibility for an interest rate hike is almost zero. Although the U.S. nominal consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in March on higher food and energy prices, the country's core inflation rate is still growing relatively slowly, indicating the US economic growth is within a normal range and showing no sign of acceleration. Besides, although the unemployment rate dropped slightly last month, it's still well above average historic levels. It should be noted that unlike the European Central Bank, the Fed cares more about economic recovery and therefore uses the core CPI as its major target for monetary policy. Under such a scenario, we believe it's nearly impossible for the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates in the short term.

Second, if there was a QE3, we don't think it will be larger than QE2. The Fed's balance sheet has far surpassed its normal size, restricting its ability to expand further. Furthermore, quantitative easing has resulted in surging asset and commodity prices in the global market, drawing criticism from other economies. On the other hand, we also think it's highly unlikely the Fed will terminate QE2 early. It may continue to carry out a relatively small-scale Treasury bond purchase and gradually wind up the quantitative easing policy in an effort to secure sustained economic growth in the country.

However, it should be pointed out that no matter whether a QE policy is announced or not, either outcome may trigger market concerns that the Fed may gradually reduce bond purchases or exit the program for good. This will present a major downward risk for the foreign exchange and commodity markets next week.

4月28日凌晨，美聯儲將進行議息會議，由于美聯儲的第二輪量化寬松計劃將于6月到期，因此市場也開始猜測美聯儲新一輪量化寬松的可能性。

從目前的各方面信息來看，市場仍然很難準確解讀出美聯儲在下周的舉動。澳新銀行將從以下的兩方面來進行分析。

第一，從目前美國的各方面數據來看，美聯儲加息的可能性幾乎為零。盡管美國的名義CPI在食品和能源價格的推動下在3月份上升至2.7％，與上月相比上升了0.6個百分點，但核心通脹率的上漲速度卻仍然顯得較為緩慢。這表明美國經濟的增長仍然處于較為正常的區間，并沒有出現加速的跡象。同時，盡管美國的失業率出現了一定的下滑，但與歷史平均水平相比，仍有非常大的差距。需要指出的是，與歐洲央行不同，美聯儲相對更加關注經濟的復蘇，并把貨幣政策的焦點放在核心通脹率上，在這樣的情況下，我們認為，美聯儲在短期內加息的可能性幾乎為零。

第二，我們認為，即使存在第三輪量化寬松，其規模也不可能超過第二輪量化寬松。美聯儲的資產負債表已經大大超出了正常的規模，這將在很大程度上限制美聯儲再度擴張的可能。同時，美聯儲的量化寬松也引發了全球性的資產價格和大宗商品價格上漲，這也在很大程度上導致了其他經濟體對美國的責難。第二，我們覺得美聯儲中止量化寬松的可能性也較低，為了保證美國經濟的持續增長，美聯儲將很可能保持相對較小的量化寬松規模，并逐步退出這一應急性的貨幣政策措施。

但需要指出的是，美聯儲宣布的任何關于量化寬松的政策，都可能引發市場擔憂其規模逐步縮小甚至退出的可能。對于外匯市場以及大宗商品市場來說，這將成為下周市場面臨的一個較大的下行風險。