Will the Fed launch a third round of quantitative easing?

?美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)實(shí)行第三輪量化寬松么？

?With the completion of the second round of quantitative easing (QE) in June, the market is now speculating whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce a third round at their April 28 meeting.

It's difficult to accurately predict the Fed's move next week based on current information. However, we can make two predictions about the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

First, judging from recent U.S. economic data, the possibility for an interest rate hike is almost zero. Although the U.S. nominal consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in March on higher food and energy prices, the country's core inflation rate is still growing relatively slowly, indicating the US economic growth is within a normal range and showing no sign of acceleration. Besides, although the unemployment rate dropped slightly last month, it's still well above average historic levels. It should be noted that unlike the European Central Bank, the Fed cares more about economic recovery and therefore uses the core CPI as its major target for monetary policy. Under such a scenario, we believe it's nearly impossible for the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates in the short term.

Second, if there was a QE3, we don't think it will be larger than QE2. The Fed's balance sheet has far surpassed its normal size, restricting its ability to expand further. Furthermore, quantitative easing has resulted in surging asset and commodity prices in the global market, drawing criticism from other economies. On the other hand, we also think it's highly unlikely the Fed will terminate QE2 early. It may continue to carry out a relatively small-scale Treasury bond purchase and gradually wind up the quantitative easing policy in an effort to secure sustained economic growth in the country.

However, it should be pointed out that no matter whether a QE policy is announced or not, either outcome may trigger market concerns that the Fed may gradually reduce bond purchases or exit the program for good. This will present a major downward risk for the foreign exchange and commodity markets next week.

4月28日凌晨，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將進(jìn)行議息會(huì)議，由于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的第二輪量化寬松計(jì)劃將于6月到期，因此市場(chǎng)也開(kāi)始猜測(cè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)新一輪量化寬松的可能性。

從目前的各方面信息來(lái)看，市場(chǎng)仍然很難準(zhǔn)確解讀出美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在下周的舉動(dòng)。澳新銀行將從以下的兩方面來(lái)進(jìn)行分析。

第一，從目前美國(guó)的各方面數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息的可能性幾乎為零。盡管美國(guó)的名義CPI在食品和能源價(jià)格的推動(dòng)下在3月份上升至2.7％，與上月相比上升了0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，但核心通脹率的上漲速度卻仍然顯得較為緩慢。這表明美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)仍然處于較為正常的區(qū)間，并沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)加速的跡象。同時(shí)，盡管美國(guó)的失業(yè)率出現(xiàn)了一定的下滑，但與歷史平均水平相比，仍有非常大的差距。需要指出的是，與歐洲央行不同，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)相對(duì)更加關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，并把貨幣政策的焦點(diǎn)放在核心通脹率上，在這樣的情況下，我們認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在短期內(nèi)加息的可能性幾乎為零。

第二，我們認(rèn)為，即使存在第三輪量化寬松，其規(guī)模也不可能超過(guò)第二輪量化寬松。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表已經(jīng)大大超出了正常的規(guī)模，這將在很大程度上限制美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)再度擴(kuò)張的可能。同時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的量化寬松也引發(fā)了全球性的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格和大宗商品價(jià)格上漲，這也在很大程度上導(dǎo)致了其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)美國(guó)的責(zé)難。第二，我們覺(jué)得美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)中止量化寬松的可能性也較低，為了保證美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將很可能保持相對(duì)較小的量化寬松規(guī)模，并逐步退出這一應(yīng)急性的貨幣政策措施。

但需要指出的是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布的任何關(guān)于量化寬松的政策，都可能引發(fā)市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂(yōu)其規(guī)模逐步縮小甚至退出的可能。對(duì)于外匯市場(chǎng)以及大宗商品市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，這將成為下周市場(chǎng)面臨的一個(gè)較大的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。