Low-altitude airspace will be opened for private flights in five to 10 years but industry insiders are reluctant to predict how many will be taking advantage of it, although they agree numbers will shoot up.

"You should just let your imagination soar," said Zhang Hongbiao, director of the science and technology committee of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, the country's major aircraft maker.

The future market for general aviation aircraft will see explosive growth just like the automobile market in China, he said. General aviation refers to all aviation excluding military and commercial jets.

Meng Xiangkai, president of China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Co Ltd (CAIGA), agreed with Zhang. He said: "When you review forecasts for China's automobile market over the past years, it's impossible to find a correct one. Usually, actual demand was several times larger than the predicted number. It will be just the same with China's general aviation aircraft market."

Latest policy

The confidence stemmed from a circular issued in the second half of last year by the State Council and the Central Military Commission that promised to gradually relax restrictions on low-altitude airspace (below 1,000 meters) within the next five to 10 years. The circular said, "Pilot projects will be carried out nationwide between 2011 and 2015 and the reform (on low-altitude airspace management) will be deepened between 2016 and 2020".

Last month, Li Jiaxiang, head of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), was more precise. He said the low-altitude airspace will be totally opened up by the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period.

Following pilot projects carried out in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces in Northeast China and Guangdong province in South China last year, trials will be expanded to Central China's Hunan and Hubei provinces, South China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, and the eastern part of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region in North China this year, he said. Hainan province started reforming its airspace restrictions below 1,000 meters in January.

According to Outlook Weekly magazine and other media reports, the ongoing pilot projects involve trial flights across a pre-determined region to investigate local airspace and flight routes and look for possible spots for landing and taking off.

With the information and data in hand, the authorities review existing laws and regulations concerning low-altitude airspace, draft new rules to better manage the airspace, and embark on research on how to provide necessary services.

There were 1,010 small aircraft registered on the mainland at the end of 2010. The United States, the world's largest general aviation market, has more than two thirds of the world's total 330,000 general aircraft.

Industry insiders used to attribute the reason for general aviation's slow development to the management of airspace. In China, it is under the control of the military. A recent report on Xinhuanet.com said that only a number of air routes and very limited airspace are in the hands of the CAAC. Even then, general aviation aircraft pilots cannot take off without going through bureaucratic procedures. They need to report their every movement to the military for approval, a task that usually takes at least half a day to accomplish.

But things will change for the better after the gradual opening of airspace below 1,000 meters. At an international air show this year, Wang Changshun, deputy head of the CAAC, said by 2015 China's general aviation fleet would at least double its current size to 2,000, with an annual growth rate of 15 percent. The flight hours of general aviation aircraft will reach 280,000, with an annual growth rate of 16 percent.

Air taxis?

Industry insiders said that most small fixed-wing airplanes and helicopters used as air taxis or for crop-dusting, cloud-seeding and sightseeing will all be able to take off with far less hassle than now. According to a report by Yun Ming, an analyst with Everbright Securities Co Ltd, cited by City Economic Herald last year, agricultural and forestry tasks only need airspace between 15 meters and 300 meters from the ground, while aerial sports, training and sightseeing usually remain below 1,500 meters.

Some general aviation activities will still be restricted, said Meng Xiangkai. They include corporate jets that travel over long distances and occupy airspace around 4,000 meters, as well as aerial photography tasks that require a height more than 1,000 meters.

According to Yun, activities including parachute jumping (up to 2,400 meters), advertising in the air (up to 3,000 meters), and remote sensing (between 3,000 meters and 7,000 meters) could also be restricted to current limits.

But both Yun and Meng believe that opening the airspace below 1,000 meters is only the first step in a move that will eventually lead to a higher percentage of free sky.

Meng said that what the industry values most about the reform is that "there will be changes to China's airspace management system".