The consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, could reach 5 percent in October, said an expert with a think tank under the National Development and Reform Commission.

Wang Jian, deputy director of China Society of Macroeconomics, said Saturday that it's difficult for China to achieve its target of keeping the inflation rate below 3 percent this year. According to his prediction, the CPI for the whole year of 2010 should be under 4 percent.

The Chinese economy will show a more obvious downward trend in the fourth quarter, Wang said, adding that the Chinese economy is facing an inevitable second dip. He further predicted that China's economic growth will drop to about 6 percent by 2013.

The Chinese government may have to raise inflation tolerance in the future so as to maintain the economic growth rate, Wang noted. Therefore, he thinks even if CPI went up to 5 or 6 percent, the central bank still won't hike interest rates.

China's August CPI rose 3.5 percent year-to-year, a record high in 22 months. Institution reports of UBS, Standard Chartered Bank and Morgan Stanley all forecast that China's CPI will drop through the rest of the year, and the central bank may conduct an interest-rate hike in the fourth quarter or next year.

China's business press carried the story above on Sunday. China.org.cn has not checked the stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.