At the Beijing auto show last April, discussion about alternative-fuel technologies for future vehicles was hot and also varied as the world's automakers pursued strategies for nearly everything from hydrogen fuel cells to ethanol, hybrid, battery and natural gas.
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| Chinese battery and electric car producer BYD Auto exhibits its plug-in hybrid technology at the North American International Auto Show last month in Detroit. |
However, it was hard to imagine, following the near meltdown of the US auto industry that the 2009 Detroit auto show was also a gathering of electric vehicles and plans.
Almost every automaker at the show raced to unveil their strategies to create mass-produced electric cars within two or three years, making some wonder: after five years, who could be the ultimate winner in the electric auto industry?
Originally world's biggest mobile handset battery maker, Chinese BYD Auto, backed by billionaire investor Warren Buffett became the focus of Detroit show and hit the headlines in US newspapers for its electric cars, the first mass-produced model in the world which came to the China market in December, priced at around US$22,000.
"We are confident of exporting our electric cars to the US market in 2011," said Li Zhuhang, general manager of BYD's auto export trade division.
He also said the BYD electric car will hit the European market "a little bit earlier than entering US market".
Li believes in the company's electric auto future, because "BYD is the first and only one who has 100 percent mastered the core technology of the battery".
However, the Shenzhen-based electric car developer is not the only one plugging into the green energy industry.
Next to the BYD display, General Motors, which was rescued from the collapse by the government loans on New Year's Eve, mobilized more than 600 employees to loudly cheer the debut of its Chevrolet Volt plug-in. The loud message was primarily to the US government saying: we are making progress on green technology to ensure the future of the US auto industry.
The Detroit-based company plans to build a US factory to assemble advanced lithium-ion batteries from LG Chem Ltd of South Korea for its Chevy Volt and put the sedan into mass production in 2010 for a price between US$30,000 to US$40,000.
Chrysler showed four electric or range-extending hybrid concept vehicles at the show, including the Dodge Circuit EV all-electric sports car, the Jeep Patriot, the Jeep Wrangler Unlimited EV, and the Chrysler Town & Country EV range-extending vehicles.
The electric models will be brought to the market beginning next year through 2013, the year Chrysler is forecasting sales of electric cars will exceed 100,000 annually.
Another US auto giant Ford said it plans to begin the sales of an electric sedan in the US by 2011.
"We're employing a comprehensive approach to electrification that will tackle commercial issues such as batteries, standards and infrastructure," said Bill Ford Jr, the company's executive chairman.
Derrick Kuzak, Ford's group vice president of global product development, said the automaker expects to start selling 5,000 to 10,000 electric vehicles annually.
Toyota, which gained an edge on hybrid vehicles as the owner of the world's best seller Prius, also has the ambitions to sell an all-electric car by 2012 in Japan, Europe and the US, while Nissan, which was not represented at the Detroit show, has said it will sell an electric car in the US as early as 2010.
Even the luxury sedan provider Mercedes-Benz put BlueZero, a battery-only small electric prototype in the center of its stand. The Concept BlueZero, three vehicles with alternative electric drive systems that could travel up to 375 miles on a single charge, are on a production agenda starting from later this year to 2010.
Herbert Kohler, chief environmental officer of the German automaker told China Business Weekly that Mercedes-Benz also plans to produce electric B-Class and Smart cars.
"An electric car is the best solution for zero exhaust for a not too long distance drive," said Kohler.
"Electricity is the future," said Aaron Bragman, an automotive industry analyst at consultancy IHS Global Insight. "Looking around the Detroit show, all roads will lead to that electric destination. It's the most efficient propulsion system we have. It's finally starting to catch up in terms of the technology, and over the next few years there will be a real proliferation of it."
As world's second biggest vehicle market and with the most crowded traffic in major cities, China is definitely a prime destination for electric cars.
China relies on imports for nearly half its oil. "If China continues its current growth rates it will almost double oil imports by 2030," said a recent McKinsey and Co report. "But greater use of electric cars would cut this growth by around a quarter."
Moreover, electric cars could be a more realistic hope for new energy vehicles because they may be the cheapest choice and meet a range of government goals, said the report.
If the electric cars would occupy 30 percent of China's domestic auto market, it will mean a possible 1.5 trillion yuan electric car market for the auto producers and a 40 billion yuan business opportunity to the parts enterprises.
"More importantly, China would go uphill to the top with the electric technologies in the world's third auto technology revolution," said the report.
Along with BYD Auto, China's Dongfeng, Chery, Chang'an and Wanxiang all have made huge investments into electric vehicle research and development.
"If they (Chinese automakers) can succeed in the commercialization of electric cars, China will no more count on foreign turbo engine technologies, and also can compete with international rivals on the same stage," said Jia Xinguang, an independent auto analyst.
"China should be one of the most potential markets for electric cars," said Toshiaki Otani, general manager of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Co.
He said Nissan will bring electric cars to China by 2012.
"It will be an ideal solution as the country seeks to boost sales of fuel-efficient vehicles to protect the environment and cut oil usage."
"They (automakers) are on a right way to electric cars. However, the cost, performance and the efficiency to charge batteries still remains a problem for the sales of plug-ins," said Zhang Xin, an analyst with Guotai Junan Securities.
(China Daily February 9, 2009)
