Besides the global financial crisis, 2008 is also remembered for a record high crude oil price that plunged precipitously in the second half of the year. How wildly the price fluctuates in 2009 is a question that occupies economic researchers throughout the world. It is particularly important in China, which depends on imports for half of its crude consumption.
Here are some of the forecasts China Daily has collected:
Lin Boqiang, director of China center for energy economics research, Xiamen University:
US$40 per barrel on average in the first half of 2009, before climbing up to the level of US$80 per barrel in the second half - if only the Israel-Hamas conflict can end soon.
But if conflict continues or spreads, things will be hard to predict.
Deutsche Bank AG:
US$47.50 on average for all of 2009.
Merrill Lynch & Co:
Average US$50 a barrel.
Moody's Investors Service:
Average US$50 a barrel, before it climbs to US$55 a barrel for 2010.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc:
Prices will average US$45 for all of next year, after falling as low as US$30 in the first quarter of 2009.
(Five months ago, Goldman Sachs predicted oil prices would hit US$200 a barrel in 2009).
London-based Oxford Economics, in a study published by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum (IEF):
Oil prices could average around US$50 a barrel in 2009 but are expected to rebound in 2011 as the world begins to recover from the current financial crisis.
Higher prices could entice OPEC to embark on capacity expansion to meet world demand in the long term, which could push output to 48 million barrels per day by 2030.
Lower investment by OPEC could sharply push up crude prices and this could stifle demand and depress the global economy in the long run.
Rapid economic growth in China, India and other emerging markets would be the main factor in driving up crude prices after they collapsed by nearly two thirds between July and November last year.
In the baseline, oil prices are forecast around US$50 a barrel in 2009 and 2010, then expected to recover gradually from 2011 as a global recovery takes hold, reaching US$77 by 2015 and over US$80 by 2030.
(China Daily January 13, 2009)
