Labor experts have warned of huge job losses if the Chinese
currency continues to appreciate sharply.
A study by the Institute of Labor Science affiliated to the
Ministry of Labor and Social Security said if the yuan rises by
5-10 percent, about 3.5 million workers in non-agriculture sectors
might lose their jobs and some 10 million farmers could be
affected.
The yuan has risen by more than 7.5 percent against the US
dollar since China scrapped the peg to the greenback in July 2005.
The central bank set the yuan's central parity rate at 7.6538 to
the dollar yesterday, compared with 7.6512 on Monday when it hit a
new high.
A stronger currency makes Chinese exports more expensive in
overseas markets, damping demand; but at the same time, imports
would be cheaper.
The study said five non-agriculture sectors - textile, apparel,
footwear, toy and motorcycle industries - would bear the heaviest
brunt; as would agriculture.
"The five non-agriculture industries are all labor-intensive,
relying heavily on exports. Any appreciation will curb exports and
wipe out enterprises' profits, which are already thin - between 3
and 5 percent," said You Jun, head of the institute, who compiled
the study report with Guo Yue.
"The apparel and motorcycle industries will suffer most, because
both have little or no processing trade," he said.
For enterprises involved in processing trade, the negative
impact of the currency appreciation can be offset by lower prices
of imported raw material and spare parts.
The footwear and toy industries, which rely on exports, will
also suffer greatly.
In the best-case scenario, the appreciation might only slow the
growth of employment. But in the worst, all five industries - which
provided 24 million jobs in 2004 - could shrink; and 3.5 million
people could be sacked, the study predicted.
Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Dalian cities; and Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Shandong provinces will suffer more than other
regions.
The rise of the yuan's value will also hinder the export of
agricultural products, and allow more imported agricultural
products at a cheaper price.
"If the yuan rises 5 to 10 percent, the price of imports of
soybean, cotton, winter wheat and corn will drop by 5 to 10
percent, and as a result, the cultivated area will shrink," the
study said.
About 100 million farmers make a living on the four crops, and
it is estimated at least one in 10 will be affected.
(China Daily May 30, 2007)