China's trade surplus is expected to total US$150 billion this
year, another big increase from last year's record of US$109.8
billion, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) revealed yesterday.
Meanwhile, the country's foreign trade is estimated to grow 24.5
percent year-on-year this year to US$1.77 trillion, according to a
report on China's autumn foreign trade, jointly drafted by the
MOFCOM and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic
Cooperation.
Total exports this year are estimated at US$960 billion, a rise
of 26 percent year-on-year, while imports are expected to surge 22
percent to reach US$810 billion.
Dramatic increases were seen in the exports of machinery and
electric products and high-tech products during the past
months.
Imports of primary products grew quickly this year as a result
of robust domestic demand and high prices in the international
markets.
Imports and exports of general trade grew at 25.3 percent
year-on-year to US$547.2 billion in the first three quarters while
processing trade grew at 21.8 percent to US$596.2 billion.
However, China's foreign trade growth could see a slowdown next
year, increasing by about 15 percent year-on-year to US$2 trillion,
the report predicted.
The trade surplus is likely to continue in the coming years,
said Li Yushi, a research fellow with the academy.
"China's trade surplus, which has aroused much concern since
last year, mainly results from the world manufacturing industry's
transfer to China," he said. "China has been regarded by most
multinationals as a vital link in their international production
chain."
The country saw an annual trade surplus of only US$20-30 billion
before 2005, but last year's US$109.8 billion volume made the
country the fourth largest in the world in trade surplus.
"China is not in pursuit of a trade surplus. On the contrary,
the continuous growth in trade surplus has become one of the major
concerns of the government," Li said. "Delegations have often been
sent to major trade partners, such as the US, for big deals of
imports."
The trade surplus totaled US$109.8 billion in the first three
quarters this year, but October witnessed a sudden monthly record
of US$23.8 billion.
Experts attributed the climb to the latest adjustment in the tax
rebate regime. The central government plans to reduce or scrap the
tax rebate on exports of some products in December, which prompted
many exporters to fulfill orders before the new tax rebate rate is
adopted.
"Such big volume is not expected to last long," said Liu
Haiquan, deputy director of the MOFCOM's comprehensive trade and
market affairs department.
(China Daily November 11, 2006)