Despite cooling measures, in the year's first quarter real
estate investment increased 26.9 percent year-on-year, while
housing prices continuously rose, although by smaller margins.
There are a number of factors contributing to this.
First, rapid economic growth created a favorable climate for
increased real estate investment.
Second, large amounts of capital entered the real estate market
because of the favorable macroeconomic climate and positive
economic results enjoyed by enterprises. This drove up land
property investment.
Third, the wait-and-see attitude of the local governments poses
a stumbling block to the implementation of the central government's
macroeconomic readjustment policy.
For example, some local governments are foot dragging in
carrying out the central government's policy that small-area
apartments (90 square meters or less) make up 80 percent of the
total.
Furthermore, some local governments prefer to do nothing to
reign in runaway housing prices in the absence of administrative
pressure from above. This is because rises in real estate prices
mean increases in local revenue.
Fourth, construction of low-price housing trails demand so
low-rent apartments are short of supply.
Fifth, speculation in the real estate sector goes largely
unchecked. Among other factors, this explains much of why housing
prices could not significantly decrease.
Interest rates and bank reserve ratios have been raised steadily
over the last couple of years to increase the costs of real estate
investment and speculation to a certain extent. However, these cost
increases pale beside the fat profits reaped from the housing price
hike.
In fact, it is investment and speculation that power the rise of
housing prices. So, rooting out speculative activities in the real
estate market provides the right prescription for controlling
runaway prices.
The increase in real estate markets in the second quarter will
fluctuate between 24 percent and 26 percent, by my estimate. The
growth usually slows in the second quarter of a year.
The forecast is also based on the expectation that the
government will take measures to control the growth rate of the
economy as a whole, taking into account a context in which the
Chinese economy grew at the high rate of 11.1 percent in the first
quarter. This is bound to initiate a moderate slow-down of real
estate investment in the second quarter, among other things.
In sum, the forces working against real estate investment growth
are on the ascendancy, while those working in favor of increasing
investment are playing out.
Why?
First, the housing purchasing power is weakening, the number of
house deals struck are declining, more potential apartment buyers
adopt a wait-and-see attitude and more high-end apartments are
sitting unsold, which was rarely seen before.
All this indicates that short-term demand is weakening. Or, in
other words, the demand is being put off to mid and long terms.
In addition, the proportion of low-priced and low-rent
apartments is increasing. This is expected to change the
orientation of choice of some homebuyers and, in turn, water down
short-term demand.
Also, the central government is expected to strengthen its
efforts nationwide to see that macroeconomic readjustment policies
are actually carried out. The effects will be felt in the second
quarter and second half of the year. As a result, tax evasion,
irregularities in land transfers, behind-the-scene price
manipulation and cheating are expected to decrease.
In addition, investors and speculators are expected to sell the
housing they are holding. This, in turn, is expected to increase
the supply of second-hand apartments. So, demand for newly
constructed houses will become weaker in the second quarter and in
the latter half of the year.
Finally, round after round of real-estate price hikes since 2003
have served to separate housing prices from actual value. The
degree of bubble inflation and its endurance have both reached
their limits. Now, it is time for the price to make a downward
turn.
This analysis shows that the root causes for excessive
real-estate price rises in recent years come from the defects of
policies involving real-estate loan expansion, taxation in the land
property sector and market management. It is these maladies that
have triggered excessive expansion of investment-oriented and
speculation-geared housing consumption, which, in turn, set off
round after round of sharp price hikes.
In view of all this, the government should work out a package of
policies to hold investment-purposed and speculation-oriented
housing consumption under check, involving mortgages, taxes levied
on real estate and use of land resources, and the taxes imposed on
possession of land property and its transfer.
In addition, strict differentiations should be made between the
need to buy houses for living and that for investment purposes, or
for sheer speculation.
The author is deputy director of the Institute of Economic
and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University
(China Daily May 11, 2007)