By Sun Lijian
In another government attempt to control China's excess
liquidity, on April 16, it was ruled that domestic commercial banks
have to comply with the new deposit reserve rate of 10.5 percent.
This is the third hike in the deposit reserve rate in 2007
announced by the People's Bank of China, China's central bank.
Increasing the deposit reserve rate is traditionally regarded as
one of the strongest tools to realize monetary policy targets with
its powerful curb on prices in the securities market.
Defying the curbs, China's stock market continued to rise
following the six hikes in the deposit reserve rates imposed by the
central bank since July 2006.
The difference between theory and reality results from a change
in the central bank's tactics.
The People's Bank of China has been to tighten monetary control,
but in a gradual manner. And the recent policy moves were within
the market expectations.
In fact, the central bank probably did not mean to solve the
liquidity problem at a stroke through the deposit reserve rate
hikes.
Instead, its primary object is to help the market better
understand the monetary policy targets: keeping the Consumer Price
Index (CPI) growth below 3 percent and maintaining the exchange
rate of the renminbi at a reasonable level during its
appreciation.
With consistency in monetary policy and the market's trust in
the central bank based on transparency in policy targets, the
authorities will probably see better policy results.
Under current monetary policy, the renminbi exchange rate keeps
going up, which encourages confidence in market growth. This
encourages capital to flow from banks into the securities market.
The shrinking gap between deposits and loans relieves pressure on
banks to make loans. As a result, inflation pressure will be
eased.
A booming capital market will facilitate reform of State-owned
enterprises as well as the public listings of State-owned
commercial banks on the domestic stock market.
The central bank is trying to guide excessive liquidity into the
securities market, rather than let it drive the growth in bank
loans, which could easily lead to inflation.
The growth of the CPI was 3.3 percent in March, higher than the
3 percent target of the central bank. Once it increases further,
indicating inflation, the authorities will have to be increasingly
prudent in policymaking.
Over all, the central bank has done its job in a
market-orientated way: It raised the benchmark interest rates for
deposits as well as for bank loans by the same percentage rates in
March. It was wise not to change the interest margins between
deposits and loans, avoiding increased pressure on banks to make
additional loans.
This solution helps direct excessive liquidity into the
securities market. Both the simultaneous rises in deposit and loan
rates and the consecutive small rises in the deposit reserve rate
have served to control the negative influences on the economy of
interest rate increases.
They also reflect tactical changes by policymakers: more
transparency in policy targets and more mature use of financial
tools to reach the targets.
Under these conditions, the price of capital is primarily fixed
by the market. The market becomes more predictable with cool-headed
calculations based on price. Excessive liquidity, a destabilizing
factor in the Chinese economy, is not the result of monetary
policy. It is produced by the current economic structure that
depends heavily on foreign trade and foreign investment under
strictly regulated exchange rates.
If this economic structure is not changed, the issue of
excessive liquidity will never be solved no matter how much the
central bank does to direct money to the capital market or
somewhere else.
But changing the economic structure cannot be completed by the
monetary authorities as long as the country is still in need of
foreign investment and exports.
However, the planned establishment of the State Foreign Exchange
Investment Company will help control the inflow of foreign
currencies to some extent.
According to reports, the company will issue bonds in renminbi
and make investments with a limited amount of the foreign exchange
reserve. This will greatly help to control the excessive market
liquidity and facilitate the transition toward a market
economy.
Reform in the exchange rate regime is also necessary. But before
this is done, numerous preparations need to be made, not only in
financial businesses but also in the policymaking process and the
capital market.
Note: the author is professor of finance at the Economics
School, Fudan University
(China Daily April 23, 2007)