With a population of 1.3 billion, an annual GDP growth of 9.3
percent that has lasted over the last 27 years, China has
trail-blazed a redoubtable, awe-inspiring path into the history
books.
Mr. Hai Wen, vice president of Peking University and deputy
director of China Economy Research Center from there, analyzed this
path.
Considering the global economy, he was confident about China's
high-speed economic growth. "The promising trend will last for at
least 20 more years and the average annual GDP growth will be
between 6-10 percent," he affirmed.
According to him, China will continue to take the advantage of
labor force in the future. He listed four reasons:
Firstly, China's abundant and competent work force will not lose
its leading position in the world in the next 20 years. Development
depends on resources and in 2004, the population in rural areas, as
the main source of the low-cost labor force, represented 58.2
percent of the population, a figure that should stand at 20 percent
before the country's economy can truly boom.
Secondly, domestic demands will become the major economic
momentum in the future. The privilege of a 1.3 billion population
cannot be conquered easily by any country. The domestic demand will
alternate with the current engine?-- the foreign trade.
Thirdly, deeper reform stimulates a nation's productivity and
creativity. Through reform, resources will be better utilized and
efficiency of enterprises will also see improvement.
Finally, embraced by the open and fair international
environment, China can make a better use of the global market and
resources.
Mr. Hai also pointed out four challenges that concern him
most.
First, the Chinese government should take measures to avoid
serious macro-economic fluctuations since many of these are not
caused by the market or enterprises, but the government itself at
all levels. Unreasonable investment from local governments should
be curbed with overheated industries being cooled down.
Second, "omni-field" small or moderate enterprises should be
stream-lined. Only can professional and competent ones really
safely sail in the raging sea of international market.
Third, social stability and order should be emphasized. The
market cannot resolve problems of social fairness and justice. For
example, the income gap has drawn widely attention. The improvement
of people's purchase capability relies on both economic development
and income distribution.
Last, facing complex international relations issues, such as
anti-dumping cases, trade wars, exchange disputes and so forth, the
government should balance all the strength and fit it.
He stressed that China should insist on the market-oriented
reform, change the role of government in the economic development,
shake off the outdated traditional ideology and fully devote itself
into the globalization.
(China.org.cn by Wang Ke, September 8, 2006)
