As measures are implemented across China to prevent outbreaks or
spread of avian influenza, a meeting of hundreds of international
experts opened in Geneva, Switzerland on Monday with warnings that
a global human flu pandemic is inevitable.
"It is only a matter of time before an avian flu virus ...
acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to human,
sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza," WHO Director General Lee
Jong-wook told the gathering.
Experts fear the virus sweeping through Asia and Europe could
mutate into a form easily passed between humans, producing a
pandemic that could kill millions and cost the global economy
US$800 billion.
People are not easily infected by the virus at present and it is
passed on almost exclusively through human contact with birds. But
should it spark a human pandemic, the cost to industrialized
countries could be huge, the World Bank said.
China has not confirmed any human cases of bird flu but
authorities on Sunday could not rule out that three people may have
been infected in central China's Hunan Province. One of them, a
12-year-old girl, died last month while her 9-year-old brother and
a 36-year-old middle school teacher are reported to have
recovered.
A World Bank report said previous studies on flu pandemics had
suggested any new outbreak could kill between 100,000 and 200,000
people in the US alone, which it said translated into economic
losses for the country of between US$100 billion and US$200
billion.
"If we extrapolate from the US to all high-income countries,
there could be a present-value loss of US$550 billion. The loss for
the world would, of course, be significantly larger, because of the
impact in the developing world," the report said.
Health Minister Gao
Qiang yesterday ordered health departments across the country
to act quickly in the prevention and control of human infection of
bird flu.
Addressing a national televised conference, Gao told them to
strengthen work in monitoring, control and treatment, stressing
that rapid response is crucial.
All 168 live poultry markets in Beijing were shut yesterday and
the municipal government also closed pet-bird markets, banned
chicken raising in urban areas, and asked citizens to keep their
pigeons in cages.
Residents have been told to vaccinate all animals, including
pets, against bird flu and food-and-mouth disease; and those who
refuse to do so can be taken into custody or fined.
(China Daily November 8, 2005)