Exports surged 36.6 percent year-on-year in the first two months
of 2005 to reach US$95.3 billion, while imports edged up 8.3
percent to US$84.2 billion, the Ministry of Commerce
announced on Thursday.
The figures resulted in a trade surplus of US$11.1 billion,
compared with a deficit of US$7.9 billion in the same period last
year.
In February alone, exports were up 31.0 percent to US$44.5
billion, while imports slumped 5.0 percent to US$39.9 billion. The
month's trade surplus was US$4.6 billion, following a surplus of
US$6.5 billion in January.
China's trade surplus for 2004 exceeded US$30 billion.
"We believe that textile exports are a major contributor to
strong export growth," said Goldman Sachs Asia economist Liang
Hong.
Global textile quotas blocking the free flow of textiles were
scrapped on January 1, and strong demand from Europe and the United
States could see China's textile and apparel exports increase by 15
percent to more than US$110 billion this year.
Foreign-funded companies are also contributing to the export
boom. According to a report released this week by the Ministry of
Commerce, foreign-funded companies' exports accounted for nearly 58
percent of China's total exports last year.
But the import growth data is much weaker than expected. Liang
believes the main cause is the slowdown in fixed-asset
investment.
The National
Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release retail sales and
fixed-asset investment figures next week.
But last year's high base should be taken into consideration
when analyzing this year's import slowdown. The figures have soared
in recent years as the country has bought more raw materials and
machinery to feed its rapidly growing economy.
Liang believes net exports have become an important driver of
GDP growth, judging from the strong trade surplus.
At the ongoing Third
Session of the 10th National People's Congress, Minister of the
National Development and Reform Commission Ma Kai forecast that
total trade would rise 15 percent year-on-year in 2005. Imports and
exports would be roughly balanced.
Deutsche Bank economist Ma Jun anticipates export growth to
decelerate to 22 percent this year as a result of a slight slowdown
in the global economy and new export taxes in China.
On the import side, China's reduction in tariffs, combined with
high oil prices, will drive imports up, leading to a slight
narrowing of the trade surplus this year, Ma said.
(China Daily March 11, 2005)