Urban fixed asset investment in China rose 24.9 percent in
November compared with the same month a year ago, the National Bureau of
Statistics reported in a statement on Thursday.
The growth rate was 1.5 percentage points lower than that in
October.
For the first 11 months, urban fixed asset investment climbed
28.9 percent year-on-year, below the 29.5 percent rate recorded for
the first 10 months.
Real estate investment rose 29.2 percent year-on-year to 1.1
trillion yuan (US$129.4 billion) during the first 11 months. The
bureau did not provide comparative figures.
Zhu Jianfang, a senior economist at Beijing's China Securities,
said November's growth was in line with his forecast.
"It suggests the country's fixed asset investment is
stabilizing," he told China Daily in a telephone
interview.
He expects the growth rate will continue to decline in December
and the next few months, and that the figure for the year will come
in at 25 to 26 percent.
Driven by fixed asset investment, domestic consumption and
exports, the country's gross domestic product should increase about
9 percent this year, he said.
Niu Li, a senior economist with the State Information Center,
said that 24.9 percent is still fast, but that the slowdown was in
line with the government's expectations.
China's fixed asset investment began expanding rapidly from the
second half of last year, jumping 53 percent in the first two
months of 2004.
The government has said that it will continue to beef up and
improve its macroeconomic controls next year. Overheated industries
will be among the main targets, as excessive growth in some sectors
and regions could have a serious impact on the economy.
In its latest move to harness excessive investment, the ,
the central bank, raised the benchmark interest rates for the first
time in nine years.
The benchmark rate on one-year loans was raised to 5.58 percent
from 5.31 percent and the rate on one-year deposits was raised to
2.25 percent from 1.98 percent.
"The measures have had a big impact on fixed asset investment,"
Niu said, "but a healthier rate in fixed asset investment would be
at about 20 percent."
Niu expects GDP to increase about 9.3 percent this year,
although problems such as energy and transportation bottlenecks
will continue to have an impact.
(China Daily December 17, 2004)