China is likely to become the world's third largest trading
power by the end of 2004, said the Ministry of Commerce.
According to a report jointly published on Friday by the
ministry and its think tank, the Chinese Academy of International
Trade and Economic Cooperation, China is expected to chalk up a
trade volume of US$1.1 trillion for the full year and rank it third
in the world. That will be an increase of more than 30 percent year
on year.
China was the fourth largest trading power by the end of 2003,
behind only the United States, Germany and Japan.
Despite the impressive gains, analysts cautioned officials
should give higher priority to the sustainable development of its
foreign trade and the competitiveness of its exports.
"It is an urgent task to improve China's export structure," said
Fan Ying, a professor at Beijing's China Foreign Affairs
University.
She called for trade officials to put more efforts in
encouraging the exportation of high-value-added and branded
products.
"Otherwise, the country's foreign trade and exports will not
continue to proceed on a fast and healthy track," Fan claimed.
Predicting the trade scenario in 2005, the report said the
growth rate will slow down to about 15 percent due to a combination
of factors.
It cited an unstable global economy, rising friction with trade
partners, and problems in implementing tax rebates for exporters as
key challenges in maintaining the robust growth in exports.
"Because prices for energy and raw materials are continuing to
rise, and supply of coal, electricity, oil and transportation
continue to be tight... it will be very difficult to sustain the
rapid growth of foreign trade in 2005," it said.
As for imports, Fan said their growth rate is likely to surpass
that of exports.
"China's economic growth will remain robust in 2005," she said,
believing it will drive up the nation's appetite for raw materials
such as steel, iron ore, rubber and cotton.
And falling tariffs on an array of products and wider opening of
its sectors in line with China's commitments to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) will also cause an increasing number of foreign
goods into China, she added.
January-October Trade
The ministry also released October trade figures on the same
day, which showed that the country notched up a trade surplus of
US$7.09 billion last month, the largest monthly trade surplus in
2004.
October exports rose 28.5 percent to US$52.5 billion, while
imports increased 29.3 percent to US$45.4 billion.
Combined the figures from January to October, China has reached
a surplus of US$10.97 billion.
The first 10 months witnessed a 35.8 percent rise in the foreign
trade to come at US$926.47 billion.
Among it, imports surged 37.2 percent to US$457.75 billion with
exports jumping 34.5 percent and hitting US$468.72 billion.
The first four months of the year saw a trade deficit of
US$10.95 billion for China, but from September the figure went into
the black thanks to consecutive surpluses since May.
Analysts forecast that the full year will see a small
surplus.
(China Daily November 13, 2004)